Apologies for the delay today. We had server problems that meant the website was down for a few hours.
Some of the previous session highs/lows are marginally out of date now that Asia has got up and running but most are generally intact.
| EURUSD: 1.1803 |
| Preferred Strategy: The US$ has been under steady downside pressure through much of the day culminating in a move to 1.1825 after the suspension of the Catalan independence votes and is finishing the US session just below the day’s highs. Given the lack of data today, it could be a rangebound session while waiting on the FOMC Minutes. After that it will be a pretty lean data calendar until Friday’s CPI and Retail Sales reports, which will again be viewed through the hurricane affected conditions. Technically the US$ looks as though it is rapidly running out of steam on the upside and it is going to take a fairly hawkish FOMC minutes to put it back on its feet. The short term momentum indicators are looking quite positive, while the dailies are flattening out, so the US$ longs (me!) look to be in for a bit of pain. The neckline of the head/shoulder is now at 1.1870 and we can go to that level, but do not want to head any higher or there will be strong dollar liquidation which would see the Euro head towards 1.1900/1.2000. The downside today looks underpinned at around 1.1780/60. Overall, range trade may be the plan and then go with the flow after the FOMC Minutes or sell a rally to 1.1870 but with a tight SL, at around 1.1900. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish – Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1900 | 1.1780 | Minor | |
| 1.1882 | (50% of 1.2092/1.1669) | 1.1755 | 200 HMA |
| 1.1870 | Neckline resistance | 1.1738 | Session low |
| 1.1850 | Minor | 1.1718 | 9 Oct low |
| 1.1830 | (38.2% of 1.2092/1.1669) | 1.1700 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
FOMC Minutes, Speeches, Fed’s Williams/Evans
…
| USDJPY: 112.52 |
| Preferred Strategy: The dollar remains rangebound within 112.00/113.00 today, having so far tested and bounced off the base (low 111.98) and similar conditions appear set to continue. As before, I think the dollar will eventually head higher, so buying dips is preferred although for the time being 112.00/113.00 looks set to cover it gain. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 113.55 | Minor | 112.20 | Minor |
| 113.43 | 6 Oct high | 111.98/112.00 | Session low/(23.6% of 107.31/113.43) |
| 113.20 | Minor | 111.80 | Minor |
| 113.00 | Minor | 111.65 | Minor |
| 112.74 | 9 Oct high | 111.46 | 25 Sept low |
Economic data highlights will include:
Machinery Orders,
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3200 |
| Preferred Strategy: Cable has had another solid session, underpinned by the strong Manufacturing/Industrial Production data, although the weak trade data tempered further gains, and is closing near session highs of 1.3225. The charts remain mixed, so a neutral stance is required but overall, with the dailies still looking heavy, selling into near term strength may be the plan. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.3292 | 4 Oct high | 1.3175 | Minor |
| 1.3265 | (38.2% of 1.3656/1.3026) | 1.3145 | 100 HMA |
| 1.3250 | Minor | 1.3130 | Session low |
| 1.3235 | 200 HMA | 1.3100 | Minor |
| 1.3225 | Session high | 1.3075 | 9 Oct low |
Economic data highlights will include:
Inflation Report Hearing
…
| USDCHF: 0.9757 |
| Preferred Strategy: US$Chf broke down through the rising trend support, mentioned yesterday, and traded to 0.9735 with little bounce heading into the US close. The dailies are still positive, but may be running out of steam, and with the 4 hour charts looking heavy a retest of the lows and possibly 0.9700 would not really surprise today. In the medium term I still like the dollar higher though, eventually looking for a run towards parity. A close above the 200-DMA (0.9850) would help extend the uptrend – patience may be required! Neutral. | |||
| 24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9850 | 200 WMA | 0.9735 | Session low/5 Oct low (23.6% of 0.9420/0.9836) |
| 0.9835 | 200 DMA/(61.8% of 1.0099/0.9420) /6 Oct high | 0.9710 | 4 Oct low |
| 0.9807 | 9 Oct high | 0.9685 | Minor |
| 0.9789 | Session high | 0.9676 | 2 Oct low (38.2% of 0.9420/0.9836) / |
| 0.9770 | Minor | 0.9642 | 25 Sept low |
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7783 |
| Preferred Strategy: The Aud reached a high of 0.7796 in late Asia but is now back at 0.7780 and appears set to remain rangebound within the 0.7740/0.7800 range today. . The short term momentum indicators are neutral, but with the dailies still pointing lower, selling rallies still appears to be the plan. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7872 | (38.2% of 0.8102/0.7732) | 0.7765 | Minor |
| 0.7850 | Minor | 0.7749/47 | Session low /9 Oct low |
| 0.7830 | 200 HMA | 0.7732 | 6 Oct low |
| 0.7815 | Descending trend resistance/(23.6% of 0.8102/0.7732) | 0.7725 | (50% pivot of 0.7328/0.8125) |
| 0.7796 | Session high | 0.7700 | Minor |
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7076 |
| Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi remains heavy but is holding on above its trend lows while waiting on a result from the political uncertainty following the recent election, and until that occurs (Thur?) it is likely to remain under pressure. A neutral stance is currently wise. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7180 | Minor | 0.7055 | Session low |
| 0.7165 | 5 Oct high | 0.7035 | Minor |
| 0.7145 | (23.6% of 0.7434/0.7058) | 0.7010 | Minor |
| 0.7118 | 6 Oct high | 0.6990 | (76.4% of 0.6817/0.7528) |
| 0.7100 | Minor | 0.7970 | Minor |
By October 11, 2017
Source: FXCharts