12 Jan: Indices/Commodities Outlook by FX Charts

S&P Futures 2035 The US indices have been highly volatile since the new year, and the S+P, after having fallen from another all time high of 2086 (29 Dec) to the 6 Jan low of 1984, has since recovered well, to finally finish the week pretty much in the middle of that range. A neutral stance is therefore currently required and I have little bias either way at present. The daily indicators are flat and offer no assistance, while the weeklies, as always appear to show a degree of bearish divergence and look to be pointing a little lower. This has failed to materialize to any degree in the past, and I am not sure that we should be looking for too much action to the downside in the coming week either. More likely, I think, is a continuation of the same sort of choppy price action, so for the time being, use 1980/2080 as a wide guide. Interim support will be seen at the 100 DMA (2001), and then at the 200 DMA at 1960. Above 2085 will probably mean a slow crawl to 2100.
DJI 17643 The Dow is a similar picture to the S+P after a pretty wild holiday ride, with some big intraday moves in each direction, so for the time being continue to use the recent (wide) range of 18048 (26 Dec)/17175 (6 Jan) as a guide. Having had a down day on Friday, we are currently roughly in the middle of the range and more choppy trade within it looks to be the most likely outcome. As with the S+P, I have little bias at present and would currently look elsewhere for inspiration.
ASX SPI 5386 The SPI has been choppy within the 5470/5250 range since the turn of the year and – with the daily indicators currently giving little hint – it could mean more of the same over the coming week. On the topside, the 100 DMA (5400) and the 200 DMA (5425) provide the immediate stubborn resistances, and these need to be overcome in order to make further headway towards the 29 Dec high at 5470, beyond which would target the 17 Nov high at 5493. The downside currently looks contained at minor rising trend support at 5315, before which, the 200 HMA (5365) and the 100 HMA (5345) will see interim bids. Below 5300 would see a dip towards the 6 Jan low at 5255
GOLD 1223 Gold has an underlying bid tone, after having rallied from lows of 1167 (2 Jan) over the last few days – in choppy fashion – but with the overall safe-haven demand underpinning the price. It looks as though there could be some more upside potential ahead, after finishing the week above the 100 HMA (1215) but needs to break clear of the 6 month downtrend resistance from 1345 in order to progress. If so, The next resistance is to be seen at 1238 (50% pivot of 1345/1138) and then at the 200 DMA at 1255. The downside will see bids nearby, at 1200, and then again at around 1185 and at the 2 Jan 1167 low. The daily indicators are beginning to look mildly positive and the weeklies too, appear to be turning higher, so buying dips at 1200/1185 area with a SL below 1165 may be a plan.
SILVER 16.48 Silver has been choppy since the New Year but after having found solid support at 15.50 it has managed a rally to reach 16.71 before closing last week at 16.45. The dailies look as though they may want to retest the highs, beyond which, 17.00 and then the 100 DMA at 17.15 would attract. The downside will find bids at 16.15 (200 HMA), 16.00, and then at 15.50. For the time being dips would appear to be buying opportunities
OIL(WTI) 48.14 Having collapsed over the last few weeks, WTI has actually more or less perfectly reached our pre-Christmas target of 46.40 by touching the rising trend line support going all the way back to December 1998 (see chart). For the time being I suspect we are in for some more choppy trade above 46.50 in order to allow the daily charts to unwind. However the longer term scenario still looks to point lower with the weeklies/monthlies showing little sign of turning around. Below the rising trend support, which won’t be easily broken, would head towards 42.27 (76.4% of 10.47/147.15), The topside will find minor resistances at 48.85, 49.50 and at the 200 HMA at 50.85. Selling rallies still seems the way to go, but it is pretty wild, so keep stops in place.


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