12 Mar: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.2305
EurUsd was choppy but rangebound on Friday following the mixed messages from the US employment data, and ended up back at 1.2300, with a cautious outlook required on Monday. Note that the DXY finished higher for the 3rd successive week (90.13) and provides some mild support for the future dollar outlook. The EU February CPI, US Feb CPI and China Feb Retail Sales are data risks this week.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Mixed. Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Possible topping formation.
Preferred Strategy:  The market looks likely to stay steady today in the absence of any major data, with political headlines likely to drive any directional move. The downside currently looks relatively underpinned at 1.2265/75, but below which would allow a move back towards 1.2220 and then again at 1.2185. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.2335 above which would head to 1.2350 and to 1.2365.

The bigger picture looks neutral although I think that the improving US data and expected rate hikes will keep the dollar relatively underpinned, for an eventual move towards the rising trend support, currently at 1.2100.

Resistance Support
1.2444 8 Mar high 1.2305 200 HMA
1.2420 Minor 1.2272 Friday low
1.2365 100 HMA 1.2265 (61.8% of 1.2154/1.2444)
1.2350 Minor 1.2222 (76.4% of 1.2154/1.2444)
1.2333 Friday high 1.2200 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

M:

T:  US CPI, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

W:  German CPI/HICP – Feb, EU Industrial Production – Jan, US Retail Sales – Mar, PPI – Feb, Business Inventories – Jan, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change

T: New York State Empire Mfg Index, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Jobless Claims, NAHB Housing Market Index

F: German Wage Price Index, EU CPI – Feb, US Building Permits, Housing Starts all Feb, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary – Mar



USDJPY: 106.82
US$Jpy was propelled up to 107.05 following the NFP figure on Friday but  later fell back to finish the week at 106.80 but looking positive for further gains in the days ahead.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher. Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  While a cautious approach is required, the 4 hour momentum indicators are pointing sharply higher, and with the dailies also looking increasingly positive, and I would not be surprised to see a retest of the Friday high and possibly the Fibo resistance in the 106.20/45 band, above which would allow a revisit of 107.90/108.00. A failure on the topside could see a run back towards 106.15, Friday’s low and to sub 106.00. Right now this looks unlikely and I prefer to look to buy dips..Buy US$Jpy @ 106.40. SL @ 105.85, TP @ 107.40
Resistance Support
107.90 21 Feb high 106.55 Minor
107.67 27 Mar high 106.30 200 HMA
107.47 (23.6% of 114.73/105.25) 106.15 Friday low
107.20 1 Mar high/(23.6% of 113.75/105.25) 105.88 8 Mar low
107.05 Friday high 105.70 200 MMA

Economic data highlights will include:

M:

T:

W:

T: BOJ Minutes

F: Capacity Utilisation – Feb, Industrial Production – Jan



GBPUSD: 1.3849
Cable was choppy but ended up pretty much unchanged on Friday following the US jobs data and looks set to continue in this mode early in the week.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral Daily Indicators:  Neutral. Weekly Indicators:  Possible topping formation.
Preferred Strategy:     As before, Cable remains very choppy, and I suspect is still best left alone, with too many factors, not least the ongoing Brexit headlines, influencing sharp market moves. The 4 hour/daily indicators are completely flat so, on the topside resistance will arrive at 1.3910 and again at 1.3930/40, which should be strong if we get there. On the downside, minor support will be seen at 1.3830 ahead of 1.3800 and 1.3780. Sidelined.
Resistance Support
1.3985 (76.4% of 1.4070/1.3711)/ Descending trend resistance 1.3830 Minor
1.3970 Minor 1.3800 Minor
1.3932/37 (61.8% of 1.4070/1.3711)/ Descending trend resistance 1.3780/87 8 Mar low /Friday low
1.3909 8 Mar high 1.3766 5 Mar low /Rising trend support
1.3886 Friday high 1.3711 1 Mar low


USDCHF: 0.9512
US$Chf traded higher on Friday, building on its bullish-looking formation, taking the dollar up to 0.9534  before settling the week at 0.9510, but which I suspect is destined to take us to 0.9600/10 and possible a fair bit higher in the weeks to come. SNB meet this Thursday.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:   Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  As before, the dailies look constructive, so I prefer to be long and to look to buy dips possibly nearer the Friday’s low of 0.9485, with a SL placed below 0.9450. On the topside, the immediate resistance will be seen at Friday’s high of 0.9534, above which could see a return to 0.9600, although unlikely today, but there is little resistance in between.On the downside, support will be seen at 0.9485 and then again at 0.9450. Look to buy dips.

Buy US$Chf @ 0.9485. SL @ 0.9435, TP @ 0.9600

Resistance Support
0.9600 Minor 0.9500 Neckline
0.9580 Minor 0.9486 Friday low
0.9550 Minor 0.9450 (23.6% of 0.9186/0.9534)
0.9534 8 Mar high 0.9421 8 Mar low
0.9510 (38.2% of 1.0037/0.9186) 0.9400 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

M:

T:

W:

T: SNB Interest Rate Decision

F:



AUDUSD: 0.7845
The Aud was the big winner on Friday, taking advantage of the improved risk sentiment following the US data, reaching a new short-term trend high of 0.7853. Positive technicals suggest the chance of some follow-through buying at the start of the week against both the US$ and on the crosses.   The NAB February conditions/confidence and the January House Finance are data risks this week along with the China Retail Sales. Speeches by the RBA’s Debelle, Kent & Bullock are minor risks as well
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower?
Preferred Strategy:The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators look constructive, and a run beyond 0.7845/55 does look on the cards, above which could see a move towards 0.7875 and even to 0.7890/00. On the downside, support will be seen at 0.7800, at 0.7775/85 and at the 7 Mar low of 0.7771. Under 0.7800 looks doubtful today and right now buying dips near 0.7800 is preferred, with a SL placed below 0.7770.

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7800. SL @ 0.7765, TP @ 0.7885

Resistance Support
0.7922 (50% of 0.8135/0.7711) 0.7820 Minor
0.7910 Minor 0.7800 Pivot
0.7893 26 Feb high 0.7790/87 200 DMA /200 HMA
0.7875 (38.2% of 0.8135/0.7711) 0.7770 100 DMA / 7 Mar low/8 Mar low
0.7853 Friday high 0.7755 6 Mar low

Economic data highlights will include:                                                     

M:  Labour Day long w/e (banks closed), China Foreign Direct Investment

T:  NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, Home Loans, Investment for Home Loans

W:  China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment – all Jan,

T: Consumer Inflation Expectations – Mar, New Motor Vehicle Sales – Jan, RBA Bulletin

F:



NZDUSD: 0.7281
The Kiwi was choppy but closed nearer the top end of its 50 point range on Friday, and having been unable to take out 0.7300 it ended the week at 0.7285, with more directionless trade looking possible at the start of the week. The NZ Q4 GDP and current account are the main risks this week.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher? Daily Indicators:  Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Turning Neutral
Preferred Strategy:   The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are mixed, so I prefer to stand aside right now although the 4 hour charts do hint at another possible test to the topside. Today will find offers at 0.7310 and at 0.7340 ahead of 22 Feb, 0.7365 high, beyond which opens 0.7400+. Bids will arrive again today at 0.7255/60 ahead of 0.7220, with the major downside target being the major Fibo level at around 0.7185, (38.2% of 0.6780/0.7438) but we have to wait and see on that. Sidelined.
Resistance Support
0.7380 Minor 0.7244/49 8 Mar low /Friday low
0.7365 22 Feb high 0.7220 6 Mar low
0.7340 (61.8 % of 0.7436/0.7185) 0.7202 5 Mar low
0.7310 (50% of 0.7436/0.7185)/6 Mar high 0.7185 1 Mar low
0.7297 Friday high 0.7176 8 Feb low/200 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:

M:

T:  NZ Food Price Index – Feb

W:  Current Account – Q4, WBC Consumer Confidence -Mar

T: Q4 GDP

F:  Business PMI


By | March 12, 2018
Source: FXCharts

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