I will be travelling for the next 4 weeks and the service will be limited. Daily updates, mainly trading ideas will be posted at various stages during teach session.
| EURUSD: 1.1821 |
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Preferred Strategy: While the short term momentum indicators look mildly positive, the dailies still point lower although buying the US$ right now does not seem the best laid plan. For Monday, in the absence of any major data, look for a range of something like 1.1780/1.1870 to cover it. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1950 | Minor | 1.1795 | 200 HMA |
| 1.1910 | 2 Aug high | 1.1780 | 200 WMA |
| 1.1890 | Minor | 1.1748 | Friday low |
| 1.1857 | (76.4% of 1.1909/1. 1688) | 1.1705 | Minor |
| 1.1846 | Friday high | 1.1688 | 8 Aug low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: BUBA Monthly Report EU Industrial Production
T: Assumption Day Holiday, German GDP(Q2), US Retail Sales, New York State Empire Mfg Index, Import/Export Index, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
W: EU GDP, US Housing Starts, Building Permits, FOMC Minutes, EIA weekly crude oil stock change
T: German Wage Price Index, EU CPI, Trade Balance, ECB Minutes, US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production
F: German PPI, EU Current Account, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Labor Market Conditions, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
…| USDJPY: 109.16 |
| Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The short term momentum indicators hint at a mild topside squeeze although while fears of further tension between the US and N Korea remain the focus the dollar is going to find it hard to make much of a recovery. The dailies appear to be picking up increasing downside momentum so selling rallies towards 110.00 would seem to be the plan, with a SL placed above 110.15 but looking for a return to 109.00/108.70. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 110.30 | Minor | 109.00 | Minor |
| 110.08 | (23.6% of 114.50/108.73) | 108.80 | 200 WMA |
| 109.85 | 100 HMA | 108.73 | Friday low |
| 109.55 | Minor | 108.50 | Minor |
| 109.40 | Friday high | 108.12 | 17 April low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: Japan GDP (Q2)
T: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
W:
T: Trade Balance
F:
…| GBPUSD: 1.3008 |
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Cable was choppy on Friday and would seem set to remain that way on Monday, again possibly using 1.3000 as a pivot although I still prefer to sell rallies for the medium term downtrend. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.3102 | (50% of 1.3266/1.2938) | 1.2970 | Minor |
| 1.3064 | (38.2% of 1.3266/1.2938) /200 HMA | 1.2938 | Friday low |
| 1.3052 | 8 Aug high | 1.2927 | (50% of 1.2588/1.3267) |
| 1.3030 | Friday high | 1.2900 | Minor |
| 1.3000 | Pivot | 1.2847 | (61.8% of 1.2588/1.3267) |
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T: UK CPI, PPI, RPI
W: UK Unemployment
T: UK Retail Sales
F:
…
| USDCHF: 0.9618 |
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The momentum indicators are mixed and a cautious stance is required but as long as political tensions remain high demand for the Swiss Franc will remain well bid against both the dollar and on the crosses. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9772 | 8 Aug high | 0.9600 | 100 MMA |
| 0.9725 | Minor | 0.9582 | Friday low |
| 0.9695 | 200 HMA | 0.9565 | (61.8% of 0.9440/0.9772) |
| 0.9670 | Minor | 0.9545 | Minor |
| 0.9638 | Friday high | 0.9525 | Minor |
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7892 |
| 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish. | ||
| Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators are mixed on Monday, with the short term charts looking mildly positive, although at the same time the dailies look increasingly negative, so a cautious stance is required, with any directional move likely to come via the Chinese data.Once again, trading from the short side, selling rallies, with a SL above 0.7945 could be a plan for Monday although I doubt that we head below Friday’s 0.7838 low today. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7980/85 | 4 Aug high/200 MMA | 0.7870 | Minor |
| 0.7965 | Minor | 0.7850 | Minor |
| 0.7945 | Minor | 0.7838 | Friday low |
| 0.7915 | 10 Aug high /200 HMA | 0.7800 | Minor |
| 0.7908 | Friday high | 0.7782 | (38.2% of 0.7328/0.8065) |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Urban Investment (July)
T: New Motor Vehicle Sales, RBA Minutes
W: WBC Leading Economic Index, Wage Price Index
T: Unemployment
F: China House Price Index
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7316 |
| 24 Hour: Mildly Bullish | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish – Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi has recovered well from its 0.7251 Friday low and the short term momentum indicators now suggest the chance of near term gains towards 0.7370, possibly to 0.7400. The dailies though still suggest selling any near term rally for an eventual return to 0.7250, possibly lower | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7400 | Minor | 0.7600 | Minor |
| 0.7385 | Minor | 0.7274 | (38.2% of 0.6817/0.7557) |
| 0.7370 | 8 Aug high/(38.2% of 0.7557/0.7251) | 0.7262 | 18 July low |
| 0.7355 | 10 Aug high | 0.7251 | Friday low |
| 0.7327 | Friday high | 0.7215 | 12 July low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: NZ Retail Sales, RBNZ Inflation Expectations
T: Global Dairy Trade Index
W: NZ PPI (Q2)
T:
F:
By August 14, 2017