| EURUSD: 1.2504 |
| EurUsd has spent most of the session in a choppy 50 point range and is finishing the day at the highs of 1.2510, and appear set to take on the 2018 high of 1.2538. The dollar remains under heavy pressure following the mixed US data and it looks set to find little reprieve heading into the weekend. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators are all pointing higher today, and if we take out 1.2510 we can possibly expect a return to the January high of 1.2538, above which the next major resistance is at 1.2590 (61.8% of 1.3993/1.0340). A failure at the current levels would see us back at 1.2445/50, below which sees minor Fibo support levels at 1.2435, 1.2395 and 1.2360. Buying dips currently seems to be the idea although a cautious outlook is required in the medium term as real-money sellers are apparently looming above 1.2550Buy EurUsd @ 1.2450. SL @ 1.1385, TP @ 1.2585 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2600 | Minor | 1.2475 | Minor | ||
| 1.2588 | (61.8% of 1.3993/1.0340) | 1.2447 | Session low | ||
| 1.2569 | 14 Dec 2014 high | 1.2437 | (23.6% of 1.2205/1.2509) | ||
| 1.2538 | 25 Jan high | 1.2393 | (38.2.6% of 1.2205/1.2509) | ||
| 1.2509 | Session high | 1.2357 | (50% of 1.2205/1.2509) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
German Wage Price Index, US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import/Export Index
…
| USDJPY: 106.13 |
| US$Jpy had another tough day, with the correlation between bond yields and stock market movements now completely broken down, and is currently trading just above new 15 month lows of 106.03. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: US$Jpy is currently holding on above the 106.03 session low although the momentum indicators do not look healthy and we could yet see a move to test 106.00, below which would then see little support until the 200 MMA at 105.70. Below here would open the way to the 10 Nov 2016 low at 104.95, as well as the option barriers at 105.00.On the topside, minor resistance lies at 10650 and 106.85 ahead of 107.00 although this looks highly unlikely to be seen today.
As we said yesterday, technically it looks as though the dollar is headed lower. Fundamentally, while stocks are rising and with several Fed rate hikes looming, I don’t see why the dollar should collapse. Too confusing for me. Sidelined. Sell rallies? |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 107.89 | 14 Feb high | 106.03 | Session low /11 Nov 16 low | ||
| 107.40 | Minor | 106.00 | Minor | ||
| 107.00 | Minor | 105.65 | 200 MMA | ||
| 106.85 | Minor | 105.50 | Minor | ||
| 106.50 | Minor | 105.15 | Minor | ||
…
| GBPUSD: 1.4093 |
| Cable is trading just below session highs of 1.4104, underpinned by the general US$ selloff, and looking as though it has the legs to head on towards 1.4100 although the UK January Retail Sales (exp 1.5% mm, 0.9% yy), will be the arbiter of that today. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Turning higher. | Weekly Indicators: Up –Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: Sterling remains underpinned, and with the momentum indicators looking constructive, further gains look very possible. Above 1.4100 the next resistance is at 1.4120 (61.8% of 1.4345/1.3764) and then at 1.4150. 70 and at 1.4205. A failure here would allow a run back to minor support levels ahead of 1.4000 although this seems unlikely to be seen today so buying dips seems to be the plan.Buy GbpUsd @ 1.4020. SL @ 1.3980, TP @ 1.4200 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.4207 | (76.4% of 1.4345/1.3764) | 1.4075 | Minor | ||
| 1.4174 | 2 Feb high | 1.4050 | Minor | ||
| 1.4150 | 5 Feb high | 1.4020 | Minor | ||
| 1.4120 | (61.8% of 1.4345/1.3764) | 1.3994 | Session low | ||
| 1.4104 | Session high | 1.3960 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
UK Retail Sales
…
| USDCHF: 0.9216 |
| US$Chf is at levels last seen in 2015 and appears set to head towards the next major support levels, although this is not seen until 0.9150. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower. | Daily Indicators: Turning Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are looking heavy again on Friday, and below 0.9200/10 opens up the June 2015 low of 0.9150, but with the next major Fibo support not seen until 0.9090.On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 0.9250/70 although above here looks unlikely today. If wrong further offers will arrive near 0.9300 and above this would allow a move back towards 0.9370
Sidelined. Prefer to sell rallies. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9373 | 14 Feb high | 0.9210 | Session low | ||
| 0.9335 | Minor | 0.9200 | Minor | ||
| 0.9300 | Minor | 0.9175 | Minor | ||
| 0.9270 | Minor | 0.9150 | 14 June 2015 low | ||
| 0.9250 | Minor | 0.9100 | Minor | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7938 |
| AudUsd took advantage of the risk-on mood and reached 0.9365 in Europe, although having run out of steam there, it then fell to 0.7890 ahead of a recovery to end the day at 0.7935. We now await the RBA Governor Lowe who will be speaking shortly. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. Turning higher. | Daily Indicators: Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are still looking constructive, today, suggesting a possible return to 0.7965 and possibly on towards 0.7990/0.8000.The dailies are now rather neutral, giving little hint either way, and I suspect it may be a mostly rangebound session, with the real direction being driven by the US$. If that sees a rally, which looks doubtful, then support for the Aud will arrive at 0.7890/0.7900 ahead of 0.7850 and 0.7825. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.8014 | 2 Feb high | 0.7891 | Session low | ||
| 0.7990 | (61.8% of 0.8135/0.7758) | 0.7870 | 100 HMA | ||
| 0.7975 | Minor | 0.7855 | 200 HMA | ||
| 0.7965 | Session high | 0.7825 | Minor | ||
| 0.7945 | (50% of 0.8135/0.7758) | 0.7780/72 | 100 DMA /14 Feb low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
RBA Governor Lowe Speech, China New Year
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7407 |
| The Kiwi is back above 0.7400, having reached 0.7411 and looking as though it wants to test the January high of 0.7438. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: As with the Aud$, the short term momentum indicators for the Kiwi are looking constructive on Friday, suggesting a run towards the session high of 0.7411 and possibly on towards 0.7440. Beyond there opens the way to 0.7450 and 0.7480 although the next decent resistance is not seen until 0.7524, the 1 August 2017 high.The downside will find bids at 0.7365 and then at the various minor Fibo levels at 0.7355/20 and at 0.7295. Right now, trading form the long side looks to be the plan. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7480 | Minor | 0.7362 | Session low | ||
| 0.7450 | Minor | 0.7355 | (23.6% of 0.7176/0.7411) | ||
| 0.7438 | 24 Jan high | 0.7320 | (38.2% of 0.7176/0.7411) | ||
| 0.7420 | 31 Jan high | 0.7295 | (50% of 0.7176/0.7411) | ||
| 0.7411 | Session high | 0.7280 | 200 HMA | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Business PMI
By February 16, 2018
Source: FXCharts