EURUSD: 1.1795 |
Preferred Strategy: EurUsd was choppy but has finished the day looking a little bit heavy, closing towards the bottom end of the day’s 1.1780/1.1820 range. The ZEW, EU CPI and the US Industrial Production will be the drivers today, but with the short term momentum indicators looking a bit soft we might expect further downside momentum, possibly towards 1.1700. The topside looks capped at 1.1820 and selling rallies is preferred. Sell EurUsd @ 1.1820. SL @ 1.1865, TP @ 1.1720. | |||
24 Hour: Mildly Bearish | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish | ||
Resistance | Support | ||
1.1920 | Descending trend resistance | 1.1779 | Session low |
1.1879/82 | 12 Oct high/(50% of 1.2092/1.1669) | 1.1750 | (61.8% of 1.1668/1.1880) |
1.1874/70 | 14 Oct high/Neckline resistance | 1.1720 | (76.4% of 1.1668/1.1880) |
1.1840 | Minor | 1.1700 | Minor |
1.1819 | Session high | 1.1661 | 17 Aug low |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Wage Price Index, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, EU CPI, US Import/Export Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation, NAHB Housing Market Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory .
…
USDJPY: 112.20 |
Preferred Strategy: The dollar traded down to Friday’s lows, today reaching 111.64, before bouncing strongly on news that the supposedly hawkish John Taylor had a positive interview with Donald trump regarding the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy. Currently near session highs of 112.28, the short term momentum indicators now appear set to allow further dollar gains, where 112.75 would be the first real hurdle ahead of 113.00, and 113.43 (6 Oct high). Good support now seen at 111.60/70, and buying dips is preferred today. Further out, the dailies look less positive, so further range trade between 112.00/113.00 may be in store. Buy US$Jpy @ 111.85. SL @ 111.45, TP @ 112.75 | |||
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish | Medium Term: Neutral – Mildly Bearish? | ||
Resistance | Support | ||
113.20 | Minor | 111.64 | Session low |
113.00 | Minor | 111.46 | 25 Sept low |
112.74 | 9 Oct high | 111.30 | Minor |
112.51 | 12 Oct high | 111.10 | (38.2% of 107.32/113.43) /100 DMA |
112.28 | Session high | 110.80 | Minor |
…
GBPUSD: 1.3251 |
Preferred Strategy: GbpUsd is heavy at the end of Monday trade, weighed down by the lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations (offsetting any positive outlook from a potential UK rate hike), and with the short term momentum indicators pointing lower a test of 1.3200, and lower, may be in store. Selling rallies with a SL placed above 1.3310 is preferred. | |||
24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Resistance | Support | ||
1.3415 | (61.8% of 1.3656/1.3026) | 1.3224 | Session low |
1.3340 | (50% of 1.3656/1.3026) | 1.3195 | 200 HMA |
1.3337 | 14 Oct high/100 WMA | 1.3150 | Minor |
1.3311 | Session high | 1.3120 | 12 Oct low |
1.3290 | Minor | 1.3100 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
UK CPI, PPI, RPI
…
USDCHF: 0.9755 |
Preferred Strategy: US$Chf was choppy on Monday and remains within the 0.9700/0.9800 range and looks likely to continue to do so on Tuesday given the neutral look of the momentum indicators. I still prefer to be long dollars, in looking for an eventual trade above 0.9800/30, but it is a frustrating trade and needs to make a move soon or it could roll over and head back towards 0.9675. Neutral. | |||
24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
Resistance | Support | ||
0.9850 | 200 WMA | 0.9729 | Session low |
0.9835 | 200 DMA/(61.8% of 1.0099/0.9420) /6 Oct high | 0.9715 | Minor |
0.9807 | 9 Oct high | 0.9705 | 14 Oct low |
0.9789 | 10 Oct high | 0.9676 | 2 Oct low (38.2% of 0.9420/0.9836) / |
0.9770 | 14 Oct high | 0.9642 | 25 Sept low |
…
AUDUSD: 0.7850 |
Preferred Strategy: AudUsd has drifted slowly lower through the day, unable to hang on to Friday’s gains, and the short term momentum indicators suggest that we may head lower again through the coming session although the RBA Minutes will be the arbiter of that. Trading from the short side, selling near term rallies is preferred, with a SL placed above 0.7890, but looking for a run down to the 100 DMA. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7865. SL @0.7895, TP @ 0.7800 | |||
24 Hour: Mildly Bearish | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Resistance | Support | ||
0.7960 | (61.8 of 0.8102/0.7732) | 0.7842 | Session low |
0.7940 | Minor | 0.7830 | Minor |
0.7915 | (50% pivot of 0.8102/0.7732) | 0.7816 | 14 Oct low |
0.7897 | 14 Oct high | 0.7795 | 100 DMA |
0.7889 | Session high | 0.7770 | 11 Oct low |
Economic data highlights will include:
WBC Leading Economic Index New Motor Vehicle Sales, RBA Minutes
…
NZDUSD: 0.7170 |
Preferred Strategy: After having traded a tight 30 point range on Monday, the Kiwi is now waiting on the NZ CPI figure and then later in the day, the Global Dairy Trade Index. The charts are mixed, with the dailies still looking positive, although the short term momentum indicators have begun to turn lower. Stay neutral for now but overall I still prefer to sell rallies, today with a SL placed tight above 0.7200, but looking for a break below the 200 DMA (0.7155) towards 0.7100. | |||
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Resistance | Support | ||
0.7290 | (61.8% of 0.7434/0.7058) | 0.7155 | 200 DMA |
0.7245 | (50% of 0.7434/0.7058) | 0.7120 | 14 Oct low |
0.7215 | Minor | 0.7100 | Minor |
0.7200 | (38.2% of 0.7434/0.7058) | 0.7077 | 12 Oct low |
0.7195 | Session high /14 Oct high | 0.7055 | 10 Oct low |
Economic data highlights will include:
NZ CPI (Q3), Global Dairy Trade Index
By October 17, 2017
Source: FXCharts