19 May: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

S&P: 2363

The S+P fell to 2344 before a sharp bounce that took it back to 2375 before closing at 2365.

The short term momentum indicators are now recovering after having headed to oversold extremes and a further  near-term bounce may lie ahead,  which would find minor resistance at the previous support levels; 2375/85/95 ahead of the 2404 all-time high.

The daily and weekly charts still point lower though so further downside does seem possible in coming days. Below 2345, the next major support is at 2335, below which open 2315 and 2300. Selling into near term strength, with a SL placed above 2395 now seems to be the plan.

 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
2404 All time high 2355 Minor
2395 Minor 2344 Session low
2390 (76.4% pivot of 2404/2344) 2335 (38.2% of 2228/2404)/100 DMA
2381 (61.8% pivot of 2404/2344) 2322 17 Apr low
2375 Session high /(50% pivot of 2404/2344) 2317/15 27 Mar low/(38.2% of 2228/2404)

DJI: 20640

Ditto S+P (19 May: 20474/20738)

The longer term momentum indicators still point to the downside and near term selling rallies towards 20750/20800 is now favoured, but looking for an overall move lower, back below 20500 and the session low of 20474, towards support at 20380.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
                                         Resistance Support
20993 16 May high 20600 Minor
20927 17 May high 20550 Minor
20865 (76.4% pivot of 20993/20474) 20474 Session low
20795 (61.8% pivot of 20993/20474) 20380 (50% pivot of 19607/21159)
20738 (50% pivot of 20993/20474) 20309 18 Apr low

ASX SPI: 5727

The ASX traded down to the support at 5684 on Thursday before bouncing to 5745 in the US session, closing the day at 5730.

The short term momentum indicators now point higher and we could yet see a run to 5750, which should see good sellers, but above which could then head on to the next Fibo level, at 5775. I doubt that we head much above here today but if wrong, we could see a run back towards 5800.

The dailies still point increasingly lower though, and on the downside the initial support will be seen at 5700 and then at 5685, a break of which could take us back to the March low of 5653 and eventually towards the 200 DMA at 5590

Selling rallies is preferred, hopefully at around 5770, with a SL now placed above 5795, but looking for an eventual break back below 5700/5685 and eventually a test on the 5650 area.

24 Hour:  Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
5815 (50% of 5944/5684) 5709 17 May low
5800 Minor 5685 27 Mar low
5775 (38.2% of 5944/5684) 5670 Minor
5765 Minor 5653 1 Mar low
5745/50 100 DMA /100 WMA/ (23.6% of 5944/5684) 5598/90 (38.2% of 5029/5944)/200 DMA

XAUUSD: 1247

Gold ran out of steam at 1265 and slid lower as the dollar recovered, finishing the day towards the lows of 1245.

The short term momentum indicators now look heavy but buying dips is favoured given that the daily charts look increasingly constructive, and good support lies at the 1245 low. A break of the 200 DMA would find further bids at 1235, where the 200 WMA should prop it up today.  Buying it here, with a SL on new longs somewhere below 1225 seems to be the plan.

On the topside, minor resistance will be seen 1255 ahead of the session high of 1265, where the Fibo level lies. Above this looks unlikely today, but if wrong we could see a move towards 1275/85, which should be strong resistance, ahead of the 1295, April high.

Buying dips towards 1235/45 with a SL under 1225 is now the plan.

24 Hour: 24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
                                         Resistance Support
1282/84 Chart Gap/Descending trend resistance 1245 200 DMA/Session low
1276 (76% of 1295/1214) 1236 17 May low /200 WMA
1271 1 May high 1227/24 15 May low/12 May low/100 DMA
1265/64 Session high /(61.8% of 1295/1214) 1214 9 May low
1255 Minor

XAGUSD: 16.55

Silver was unable to overcome the Fibo resistance at 17.05 on Thursday and headed into reverse, to a low of 16.53. Unfortunately there is a lot of bad data in the MT4 charts, making the outlook clouded.

As we said before though, the daily indicators increasingly look as if they may be picking up steam, and buying dips does seem to be the plan. We need to regain 17.00 and to take out the 17.05 resistance to gain confidence of any move higher, but beyond the session high, resistance would be seen at 17.35/40 and then again at around 17.65

Should Silver be unable to regain any strength, we could then see a return to 16.50 and then to 16.30/35 although this now looks the less likely scenario.

A neutral stance seems prudent today.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
17.65 (61.8% of 18.65/16.06) /200 DMA 16.44/41 Session low/15 May low
17.50 Minor 16.31 12 May low
17.35 (50% pivot of 18.65/16.06) /100 DMA 16.14 10 May low
17.25 Minor 16.00 Minor
17.05/03 (38.2% of 18.65/16.06) /17 May high 15.8 Minor

WTI: 49.25

After a choppy session, WTI settled higher on Thursday, as traders remained optimistic that OPEC will reach an agreement to extend the current supply-cut deal beyond June at the OPEC meeting next week.

The dailies look increasingly positive and if the rally continues, having closed above the 200 DMA  and the 15 May high of 46.63, we could now head towards 50.00 and above, with the next major resistance not seen until 51.15 (100 DMA).

If the resistance ahead of 50.00 caps it today, it may end up being another choppy session and on the downside, back below the 200 DMA,  minor support should now arrive at 49.00, below which could see run back 48.65 (100 HMA ) and to the session low of 48.03.

The preference is to buy dips, looking for a stronger run towards 50.00.

24 Hour: Neutral- Prefer to buy dips. Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
50.65 (61.8% of 55.00/43.74) 49.00 Minor
50.15 26 Apr high 48.65 100 HMA
49.90 (61.8% of 53.73/43.74) 48.03/01 Session low/17 May low
49.69 Session high 47.40 (38.2% of 43.73/49.63)
49.40/47 200 DMA 46.65 (50% of 43.73/49.63)

By | May 19, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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