The FOMC Minutes did little to help the US$ but, whilst it prints a lower close lower for the day, it has formed a ‘Spinning Top’ candle making this the 5th consecutive indecision-style daily candle! Stocks have cheered this FOMC news though and the S&P500 moved back up towards a major Flag resistance trend line. There have been two TC signals since late last week but the combined tally is 720 pips!
USDX daily: Five indecision style candles in a row.
EURX weekly: this is one metric to watch closely. Any close and hold above 101 would be a bullish signal and support a polarity / sentiment shift here:
S&P500 weekly: a smaller bearish candle than yesterday and I suspect that all eyes will be on this index in coming sessions to see how it eventually moves from this major S/R zone:
Gold daily: a fairly nonplussed reaction to the FOMC Minutes. A weaker US$ is generally good for Gold and commodities but, if yield bearing stocks remain bid, then this metal could be over looked.
Silver 4hr: triangle bound near $15 S/R. Watch the trend lines and ADX for breakout clues:
TC Signals: The two current TC signals have given 720 pips. Watch the USD/JPY though as if this pair recovers at all then it could take these two signals back higher as well. There is one new TC signal on the GBP/AUD though as well:
GBP/JPY 4hr: watch for any bounce off the ‘Double Bottom’ 154.50 region:
This was the GBP/JPY 4hr chart from last w/e when the TC signal was first posted:
AUD/JPY 4hr: I had thought that the 80 level might be tested here but, not as yet:
This was the chart of the A/J 4hr when the new TC signal was first posted:
GBP/AUD: a new TC signal to SHORT came through during my night. Note how price is just above the weekly chart’s 50% fib level though. Cautious traders might prefer to see a break and close below this to then possibly target the 61.8% fib, some 900 pips away! There is strong S/R at 1.77 though too.
G/A 4hr: a new TC signal but some trend line and fib support is just below so caution is needed.
G/A weekly condensed: a few different support layers below current price:
Other FX: There is a BoJ Gov Kuroda speech during the Asian session and then an ECB President Draghi speech and USD Weekly Unemployment Claims later in the European/US sessions.
EUR/USD 4hr: holding up and out from the daily triangle but not doing too much:
EUR/JPY 4hr: this is still below the key 126 level. However, I’m wondering if I got the Fib levels wrong? Perhaps I would have been best to Fib the whole of the recent swing high move? Compare the two 4hr charts below. If so, then maybe look for any support from the 124.5 region as this is near the 61.8% fib of that move:
AUD/USD 4hr: a bit of a triangle to watch as well as the ADX!
GBP/USD daily: choppy but respecting major S/R levels and, at least, the inverse H&S is still alive!
Kiwi 4hr: has only pulled back as far as the 50% fib and this suggests the uptrend could be intact. I’d expect so too if the S&P500 resumes marching higher. Keep an open mind here!
USD/JPY: still below the key 111 S/R level and, technically, I’m still looking for a test of 101.5 area but I don’t expect the BoJ would allow this. Watch today for any BoJ-inspired movement:
USD/CAD 4hr: still struggling near the key 1.30 level:
EUR/NZD 4hr: still holding below the key 1.675 S/R level:
GBP/NZD 4hr: has moved down closer to test the 2.065 Double Bottom level so watch for any new make or break from this level:
EUR/AUD 4hr: struggling a bit with this latest bounce but keep an eye on the 1.55 S/R level:
AUD/NZD monthly: don’t forget this bullish pattern: