20 Feb: Indices/Commodities outlook by FX Charts


S&P Futures 2095 The S+P made yet another all time high today (2099) although there is little to add from a technical perspective. The S+P  looks headed to 2100 – and above,  – grinding slowly higher until there is some hint of the Fed beginning to hike, which looks some way off. Support is seen in the 2080/85 area, below which, further bids will arrive at 2070. Buying dips still seems to be the plan
DJI 17955 Ditto S+P. If the DJI can regain 18000 on a sustained basis (today’s high: 18035), further gains towards the all time high of 18048 –  and beyond – look likely, given the positive appearance of the daily momentum indicators. After today’s quick dip to 17893, further minor support is seen at 17885 (200 HMA).
ASX SPI 5873 The SPI is still consolidating near 5875, after a break to new trend highs earlier in the session, when the index spiked to 5913 on the back of the FOMC Minutes/Toll Holdings deal. This look likely to stay intact today and I would be surprised to see the SPI above 5900, although if wrong, there is little resistance to be seen above 5913 ahead of the Fibo resistance of the major move down from 6880 (Dec 2007 high) to 3102 (March 2009 low) at 5975. If the SPI does turn lower, then we could see another test of  the rising trend support, now seen at 5825, and possibly 5800, but which should probably be viewed as a buying opportunity.
GOLD 1208 Gold traded beautifully today, heading up to the resistance at 1222 before reversing to where it began, at 1207. We could be in for a repeat  of this today, although  given the bearish look of the dailies, I would be looking for a level to sell into the strength, hoping for an eventual break of the 1190/1200 support searching for a run towards 1185 and then possibly to Fibo support at around 1174 (76.4% of 1131/1307).
SILVER 16.40 As with Gold, Silver headed up to the resistance at 16.80, where it conveniently topped out and headed back to 16.40. We could be in for the same again today, but given the bearish outlook of the dailies, any strength appears to be a sell opportunity, looking for a return to 16.20, beyond which would hint at a run towards 16.00 (15.97: 14.41/ 17.99) and possibly to the triple bottom at around 15.52.
OIL(WTI) 51.12 WTI had a volatile session, trading down to the 49.12 low seen last Thursday, before bouncing sharply to 52.11 and then settling back close to 51.00. More choppy trade looks to be instore and so I prefer to remain sidelined. 50.00 will again provide some support ahead of the 49.12 low. I don’t really see it down here again today, but if wrong, then we could get another run towards 48.00 and the 5 Feb low at 47.35. On the topside, above 52.10 would head towards 52.70 and possibly on to 53.00. Above this, the points to watch are at Wednesday’s  53.38 high, where the daily cloud base is proving a major hindrance and then at last Monday’s 53.95 high. Beyond that sits the double top that has formed at 54.15 and then 55.08 (2 Jan high).

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