As we thought yesterday, we have seen some general risk aversion on the back of the IMF announcement, leading to some Jpy demand, a soft Aud and Kiwi and a lower oil price.
Looking ahead, things look a little more cloudy, with the clearest picture being in Sterling and the Gbp/Crosses, which all look pretty well underpinned although this obviously involves taking a punt on Brexit, which I would rather avoid right now.
US$Jpy looks a bit heavy in the short term, while the Aud and Kiwi look rather neutral although I still prefer to trade both from the short side. Note though, that the Kiwi is a bit higher following this morning’s NZ CPI figure. Selling rallies is still preferred.
The Euro seems mildly underpinned but generally rangebound.
Stocks look OK in the medium term but are turning lower in the near term and could well add to today’s losses. I therefore prefer to be short for the next 24 hours, but at the same time look for levels to buy, from a more structural point of view. That is for another day and right now lower levels look likely. The ASX looks heavy and we sold that yesterday, with a SL currently at break even.
We had a good day in WTI – short at 54.20, bought back at 52.20, but now the picture seems rather blurred. I prefer to be mildly short again today- as per the 4 hour charts, but at the same time, looking to buy nearer 50.00 as per the dailies.
Gold and Silver both look mildly underpinned right now, but I remain unenthusiastic and feel we may see lower levels ahead.
By January 23, 2019
*Trade of the day: January 23, 2019; 7:29 AM(AET)
*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.
All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.
Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1300/1.1400 (SL 30 pips either side)
Range Trade: AudUsd: 0.7180/0.7260 (SL 30 pips either side)
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7170. SL @ 0.7205, TP @ 0.7075
Sell WTI @ 53.80. SL @ 54.50, TP @ 51.45
Short AudUsd @ average price: 0.7155
Short EurUsd @ average price: 1.1370
Short WTI @ 54.20
Short NzdUsd @0.6730
Long US$Chf @0.9975
Short ASX200 @ 0.5876