23 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors: FXCharts

  • Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
  • The US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 241k in the week ended June 17, slightly above expectation of 240k but remain at a very low level historically.
  • Comments from outgoing BOE MPC member Kristin Forbes underpinned Sterling after she said “‘lift-off’ of UK interest rates should not be delayed any longer” in a speech to the London School of Business.
  • Nomura analysts predict that the BOE will raise UK rates in August
  • SNB’s Maechler said that the Swiss Franc is still highly overvalued
  • Currencies:
  • The US$ was little changed on Thursday as low US bond yields offset the weekly  jobless claims figure and home prices, which came in at close to expectations, keeping it close to the one-month peak it reached earlier this week.
  • The Yen saw some safe-haven demand due to early weakness in US and European stock markets, but later eased back as the dollar recovered into the US close, to finish on the 100 HMA.
  • Sterling touched session highs against the US$ and Euro in late Thursday US trade after comments from BOE MPC member Kristin Forbes, who reiterated her previous hawkish outlook.
  • The Aud$ remains heavy, while the Kiwi is underpinned by the mildly upbeat outlook from the RBNZ at yesterday’s monetary policy meeting.
EURUSD: 1.1151
  • Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Pointing Lower
  • Upcoming market moving events: EU PMIs, US New Home Sales
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly bearish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: I prefer to sell rallies towards 1.1200 with a SL above 1.1230, looking for a move to 1.1110 and eventually to 1.1060/70.
Resistance Support
1.1253 (76.4% pivot of 1.1295/1.1118) 1.1138 Session low
1.1228 (61.8% pivot of 1.1295/1.1118) 1.1108 30 May low
1.1212/07 19 June high /Daily Tenkan 1.1075 18 May low
1.1185 (38.2% of 1.1295/1.1118)/Daily Kijun 1.1067 (23.6% of 1.0340/1.1295)
1.1177 Session high 1.1017 (38.2% of 1.05701.1295)

Economic data highlights will include:

EU/US Markit Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs, US New Home Sales, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count


USDJPY: 111.28
  • Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Mixed
  • 4hour/daily momentum indicators: Trying to turn higher
  • Upcoming market moving events: Nikkei Mfg PMI
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: More near term choppy trade looks likely but the dailies hint at an eventual run towards 112.00. Stops on longs below 110.60.
Resistance Support
112.22 (61.8% of 114.36/108.80) 110.94 Session low
112.12 24 May high/Daily cloud top 110.90 (23.6% of 108.80/111.59)
111.90/82 100 DMA /Daily cloud base 110.72 19 June low /200 DMA
111.78 20 June high 110.64 16 June low
111.44 Session high 110.05 200 HMA /Weekly Tenkan

Economic data highlights will include:

Nikkei Mfg PMI


GBPUSD: 1.2680
  • Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Possibly trying to turn higher
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Upcoming market moving events: Ongoing Brexit negotiations, BOE MPC Forbes Speech (again!)
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral. There are easier things to look at.
Resistance Support
1.2800 Minor 1.2653 Session low
1.2763 (38.2% of 1.3047/1.2588) 1.2622 100 DMA
1.2725 200 HMA 1.2582/88 21 June low/(50% pivot of 2197/1.3047)
1.2709 21 June high 1.2550 200 DMA
1.2695/90 (23.6% of 1.3047/1.2588)/Session high 1.2515 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

BOE Forbes Speech


USDCHF: 0.9716
  • Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Attempting to point higher
  • Upcoming market moving events: Nil
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly bullish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: I prefer to buy dips towards 0.9680 with a SL below 0.9640, looking for a move to 0.9770 and eventually to 0.9805/10.
Resistance Support
0.9825 18 May high 0.9711 Session low
0.9807 30 May high 0.9695 19 June low
0.9785 Minor 0.9675 Minor
0.9770 15 June high 0.9640 14 June low
0.9742 Session high 0.9613/16 6 June low /9 June low


AUDUSD: 0.7540
  • Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Mildly heavy
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
  • Upcoming market moving events: Nil
  • Dalian Iron Ore fell by -0.35%, steel rebar -0.5%. Comex copper -0.2%
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The slow grind lower looks set to continue, so trading from the short side, looking to sell rallies, with a SL placed above 0.7470, but hoping for a move towards 0.7500, possibly 0.7470 seems to be the plan. It is going to be slow though.
Resistance Support
0.7635/31 14 June high/15 June high 0.7533/35 (38.2% of 0.7370/0.7635) /Daily cloud top/Session low
0.7623 20 June high 0.7525/21/23 200 DMA /12 June low
0.7600 Pivot 0.7502 (50% of 0.7370/0.7635)
0.7585 21 June high 0.7471 (61.8% of 0.7370/0.7635)
0.7560 100 DMA 0.7455 6 June low


NZDUSD: 0.7264
  • Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Mixed, possibly slightly positive
  • Daily momentum indicators: Overbought but yet to turn lower
  • Upcoming market moving events: Nil
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Kiwi remains underpinned although with the Aud looking heavy the upside momentum may be limited today. Rangebound between 0.7220/0.7300 seems likely.
Resistance Support
0.7381 9 Nov high 0.7235 Minor
0.7350 Minor 0.7193 Session low
0.7319 14 June high 0.7185 15 June low
0.7298 19 June high 0.7150 Minor
0.7273 Session high 0.7127 (38.2% of 0.6817/0.7319)

By | June 23, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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