| EURUSD: 1.1778 |
| EurUsd traded a range of 1.1829/1.1755 on Tuesday, led mostly by developments in Italian politics, initially heading higher on the back of a pullback in Italian yields, before reversing sharply after a story that the Euro-sceptic Savona will be named econpmics minister. We now await the PMIs, and then later on, the FOMC Minutes. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning Neutral | Daily Indicators: Down -Becoming Oversold | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The Euro has traded within the range today and this looks likely to continue until the release of the FOMC Minutes, later in the session. A hawkish lean would see the dollar’s uptrend resume, where the session low at 1.1755 would provide minor support for the Euro ahead of the trend low, at 1.1716, and then 1.1700/10. Once below 1.1700 though, look for an extension to 1.1670, which will be very strong support, and eventually to the November low at 1.1553.If the EU PMIs give the Euro a lift, then we could see a squeeze back to 1.1800 and to the session high at 1.1829. Above here seems unlikely today, but the next resistance lies near 1.1850, beyond which would run into Fibo resistance at 1.1895.
Sell EurUsd @ 1.1825. SL @ 1.1870, TP @ 1.1720 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.1895 | (23.6% of 1.2475/1.1715) | 1.1755 | Session low | ||
| 1.1853 | 16 May high /200 HMA | 1.1740 | Minor | ||
| 1.1836 | 17 May high | 1.1716 | 12 Dec low/21 April low | ||
| 1.1829 | Session high | 1.1700 | (38.2% of 1.0340/1.2555) | ||
| 1.1800 | Minor | 1.1670 | Monthly cloud base /Weekly cloud top | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
German Q1 GDP, EU/US Markit Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs , EU Consumer Confidence, US New Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change, FOMC Minutes
| USDJPY: 110.88 |
| US$Jpy traded a range either side of 111.00 on Tuesday and will do more of the same while awaiting the FOMC Minutes although the Nikkei Mfg PMI may provide some interest. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning higher – Possible topping formation | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators look a little heavy on Wednesday and a run back towards the session low at 110.80 would not surprise although, with the daily and weekly charts pointing higher, dips look likely to be well underpinned. Below 110.80 would see buyers at 110.60, below which could see a move towards 110.15, where the 200 DMA would provide decent support.If the dollar does head higher, then above the session high would allow a run back to 111.39 and then to 111.45/50, above which, several minor highs would see sellers ahead of long term trend resistance at 112.20, which would be tough to break at the first attempt, if/when we see it.
Buy US$Jpy @ 110.40. SL @ 109.95, TP @ 111.50 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 112.20 | Descending trend resistance | 110.80 | 21 April low /Session low | ||
| 111.86 | 11 Jan high | 110.60 | 18 May low | ||
| 111.47 | 18 Jan high | 110.40 | Minor | ||
| 111.39 | 21 April high | 110.15 | 200 DMA | ||
| 111.18 | Session high | 110.02/06 | 16 May low / 17 May low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Nikkei Flash Mfg PMI – May
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3433 |
| Cable chopped around above the week’s trend lows, but held on above 1.3400, with most of the volatility coming while the Inflation Report Hearing was being delivered. Unable to reverse its trend though, with a fairly benign outlook from the BOE Members, Cable is closing towards its lows. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral. | Daily Indicators: Possible basing formation. | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators look neutral now, and the dailies may be forming a base, so a cautious stance is required, with direction to be decided today by the release of the CPI, PPI, and RPI. (CPI, exp 0.5%mm, 2.5%yy; Core, exp 2.2%yy).On the downside, support will be seen at 1.3390/1.3400, where the major Fibo level at 1.3398 should see decent buying interest again. A break of 1.3390 would allow a run to 1.3300 and possibly to 1.3220, with not a lot of support to stand in its way, and some soft data could see a move towards that level quite quickly.
If Cable does manage a squeeze higher, near term resistance will again be seen at 1.3450 ahead of the session high at 1.3490. Above here, 1.3500/10 and then 1.3525 will see sellers ahead of the 200 DMA at 1.3550 and to the 15 May high of 1.3571 ahead of 1.3600/10. Sidelined. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.3550 | 200 DMA | 1.3412 | Session low | ||
| 1.3525 | 18 May high | 1.3398 | (38.2% of 1.1822/1.4376) | ||
| 1.3510 | 200 HMA | 1.3390 | 21 April low | ||
| 1.3491 | Session high | 1.3370 | Minor | ||
| 1.3445 | Minor | 1.3350 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
UK CPI, PPI, RPI – Apr, CBI Distributive Trade Survey Orders/Realised – May
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| USDCHF: 0.9924 |
| US$Chf has been heavy today, with some safe haven demand on the back of the Italian political situation causing EurChf to head sharply lower, and breaking below 1.1700 for the first time since mid-March. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower. | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Up | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators generally look heavy today, suggesting that the dollar will retain its downside bias although the weekly charts still point higher, so looking to buy dips remains the medium/longer term strategy.If the dollar does head lower, support will be seen at 0.9950, ahead of minor levels at 0.9917, the session low and then at the 1 May low of 0.9890, beneath which, further bids should arrive at 0.9880, the weekly cloud top, and then at 0.9845/50.
On the topside, 0.9990/1.0000 will be the first target, which has capped further gains over the last couple of days, ahead of 18 May’s high at 1.0014 and then further highs in the 1.0030/40 area. Decent resistance will be seen at the trend high of 1.0055, which looks unlikely to be taken out for a while, but above which would open the way to 1.0065/70, which is a major Fibo level, and to 1.0100. Further out we are potentially looking at a run up to 1.0170 and even to the December 2016 high of 1.0343 albeit probably not for a while to come. Sidelined – Look to buy dips. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.0055/56 | 7 May high /9 May high /11 May high | 0.9917 | Session low | ||
| 1.0041/32 | 15 May high /17 May high | 0.9890 | 1 May low | ||
| 1.0014 | 18 May high | 0.9880 | Weekly cloud top | ||
| 1.0001 | 21 April high | 0.9850 | (23.6% of 0.9187/1.0055) | ||
| 0.9990 | Session high | 0.9800 | Rising trend support | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7575 |
| AudUsd reached the Fibo level at 0.7605 on Tuesday but then turned lower as risk sentiment waned, falling to 0.7565 ahead of a late squeeze back to 0.7575. The local interest today will come via the WBC Leading Index and the May Construction Work Done. Otherwise, hang on for the FOMC Minutes. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: While the dailies still look constructive, the short term momentum indicators are turning lower again and for the coming session we could see a little downside pressure.If so, support will again be seen at 0.7560/70 ahead of minor levels back towards the 0.7500 pivot. Under here, unlikely ahead of the FOMC Minutes, would open the way back toward 0.7485, below which would find minor bids at 0.7470/75 and then at 0.7445. Further out, we could eventually see a return to the 9 May low of 0.7411, an 11 month low and decent buying interest should arrive at 0.7400/10. Below 0.7400 though, there really is not too much to hold it up ahead of Fibo support at 0.7385, the 1 June 2017 low at 0.7371 and the May 2017 low of 0.7328.
With the daily momentum indicators looking positive, another topside squeeze would again see sellers at 0.7600/05, above which would allow a run towards 0.7620 and eventually to 0.7660, although this seems unlikely to be visited today. It could be building a reverse head/Shoulder formation, which would eventually have a target of somewhere around 0.7720. Just a thought. It would take a big turnaround in the fortunes of the US$ to see the Aud back there. Buy AudUsd @ 0.7525. SL @ 0.7495, TP @ 0.7635 Sell AudUsd @ 0.7605. SL @ 0.7640, TP @ 0.7505 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7660 | (61.8% of 0.7812/0.7411) | 0.7565 | Session low | ||
| 0.7640 | Minor | 0.7540 | Minor | ||
| 0.7620 | 24 Apr high | 0.7515 | 200 HMA | ||
| 0.7603/05 | (38.2% of 0.7916/0.7411)/Session high | 0.7502 | 21 April low | ||
| 0.7585 | Minor | 0.7487 | 18 May low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Construction Work Done, WBC Leading Index
By May 23, 2018