27 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors: FXCharts

  • Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
  • US Durable Goods for May were weak: -1.1% vs -0.6%  after  the previous reading of -0.9%
  • US Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Index for Jun @ 15 vs 17.20 for May
  • UK PM May strikes a $1.3 billion deal with the Northern Ireland DUP party to prop up the Conservative government
  • Draghi/Yellen will be speaking today
  • Currencies:
  • EurUsd has finished on a soft note, after a choppy session, despite the poor US data.
  • US$Jpy breaking above strong resistance in what could be a bullish move, despite the soft US data.
  • Cable choppy
  • Aud and Kiwi spiked higher after the Durable Goods Orders but are now back within their ranges as the US dollar finished the day on a firm note.
EURUSD: 1.1182
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mixed/Mildly Bearish
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral/Mildly Bearish?
  • Upcoming market moving events: Draghi/Janet Yellen speeches. Also Fed’s Harker/Kashkari speeches
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly bearish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: As before, I prefer to sell rallies above 1.1200, with a tight SL above 1.1230, looking for a move to 1.1110 and eventually to 1.1060/70. Overall, further rangebound trade seems likely but Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen may provide something more directional today.
Resistance Support
1.1300 9 Nov high 1.1171 Session low/200 HMA
1.1295 14 June high 1.1138 22 June low
1.1253 (76.4% pivot of 1.1295/1.1118) 1.1108 30 May low
1.1228 (61.8% pivot of 1.1295/1.1118) 1.1075 18 May low
1.1219/08 Session high  /Daily Tenkan 1.1067 (23.6% of 1.0340/1.1295)

Economic data highlights will include:

ECB Governor, Mario Draghi speech, US Case Shiller House Price Index, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory, Janet Yellen speech, Fed’s Harker/Kashkari speeches


USDJPY: 111.83
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Turning higher
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Upcoming market moving events: Nil
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The dollar does seem to be on the point of breaking higher although the soft US data is likely to slow any possible rally.  I prefer to buy dips, with a SL now placed below 110.90. Good resistance lies at 112.10/20 but above which could see a run towards 112.80/113.00.
Resistance Support
112.80 Descending trend resistance 111.70 Minor
112.60 Minor 111.35 100 HMA
112.22 (61.8% of 114.36/108.80) 111.12 Session low /200 HMA
112.12 24 May high/Daily cloud top 110.94 22 June low
111.94/90/82 Session high/100 DMA /Daily cloud base 110.72 100 DMA


GBPUSD: 1.2719
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Upcoming market moving events: Brexit talks, UK Financial Stability Report, CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Realised
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral. There are easier things to look at.
Resistance Support
1.2875 (61.8% of 1.3047/1.2588) 1.2705 Session low
1.2817 14 June high 1.2674 23 June low
1.2800 Minor 1.2653 22 June low
1.2763 (38.2% of 1.3047/1.2588) 1.2622 100 DMA
1.2759 Session high 1.2582/88 21 June low/(50% pivot of 2197/1.3047)

Economic data highlights will include:

UK Financial Stability Report, CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Realised


USDCHF: 0.9718
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour):
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral/Turning higher?
  • Upcoming market moving events:
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Although it remains very choppy I prefer to buy dips in US$Chf, with a SL place under 0.9640. A break of 0.9770 is needed to see any possibly acceleration to the topside
Resistance Support
0.9807 30 May high 0.9700 Minor
0.9785 Minor 0.9675 23 June low
0.9770 15 June high 0.9640 14 June low
0.9742 22 June high 0.9613/16 6 June low /9 June low
0.9737 Session high 0.9600 Minor


AUDUSD: 0.7583
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Upcoming market moving events: RBA Debelle Speech
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: We saw the move towards 0.7600 that we discussed yesterday although the Aud is now back at 0.7585 and looks set to remain choppy in the coming session. Although relatively well underpinned, I see little reason for it to head much higher and prefer to stand aside for now. Debelle speaking later.
Resistance Support
0.7650 Minor 0.7559 Session low
0.7635/31 14 June high/15 June high 0.7533/35 (38.2% of 0.7370/0.7635) /Daily cloud top/22 June low
0.7623 20 June high 0.7525/21/23 200 DMA /12 June low
0.7598 Session high 0.7502 (50% of 0.7370/0.7635)
0.7585/82 21 June high/23 June low 0.7471 (61.8% of 0.7370/0.7635)

Economic data highlights will include: RBA Debelle Speech


NZDUSD: 0.7285
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour):
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Upcoming market moving events: Trade Balance
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Kiwi ran up to 0.7310 on the release of the soft US data. It has since given up some of those gains but remains underpinned. It does seem toppish (and determined not to allow anyone to be short if/when it finally does head lower) and I prefer to sell rallies, with a SL placed tight above 0.7320.
Resistance Support
0.7381 9 Nov high 0.7261 Session low
0.7350 Minor 0.7248 23 June low
0.7335 Minor 0.7220 Minor
0.7319 14 June high 0.7193 22 June low
0.7298/96 19 June high/23 June high 0.7185 15 June low

Economic data highlights will include:

T: Trade Balance (May)

By | June 27, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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