28 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors: FXCharts

  • Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
  • Central Bankers galore, with more to come, including more from Draghi as well as Carney, Kuroda and Poloz.
  • The main focus of the previous session were :
  • Draghi: “All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the Euro area”
  • and
  • Yellen: “We intend to very gradually and predictably shrink our balance sheet” and “there are a number of reasons to believe interest rates will remain low as we normalize policy”.
  • Currencies:
  • The Euro took off on the back of Draghi’s optimistic comments, with the US$ somewhat undermined by Yellens more cautious outlook. Cable followed the Euro higher.
  • The Yen remained under pressure on all fronts.
  • The commodity bloc spiked higher but unable to maintain their strength, they are back at the previous closing levels.
EURUSD: 1.1340
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Overbought but pointing higher
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Upcoming market moving events: C/B speakers, including ECB Governor, Mario Draghi, US Pending Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral  –  Possibly  sell here or buy a break of 1.1380 Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: While the momentum indicators now generally point to further Euro strength we are up against dome decent resistance so caution is warranted ahead of further words of wisdom from Draghi later today. While below the trend line resistance a sell, with a SL placed just above – at around 1.1375/80 – may be a plan
Resistance Support
1.1450 Descending trend resistance 1.1294 (23.6% of 1.1117/1.1348)
1.1429 24 June ’16 high 1.1275 Minor
1.1400 Minor 1.1260 (38.2% of 1.1117/1.1348)
1.1366 18 Aug ’16 high 1.1234 (50% pivot of 1.1117/1.1348)
1.1348 Session high 1.1205 (61.8% of 1.1117/1.1348)

Economic data highlights will include:

German Import index, US Provisional, Wholesale Inventories, Goods Trade Balance, Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change, ECB Governor, Mario Draghi Speech


USDJPY: 112.21
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mildly Bullish
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Upcoming market moving events: Kuroda speaking
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The dollar is trading just below the 112.45 high and looks as though we may give the descending trend resistance at 112.80 a nudge in the near future. I prefer to buy dips, with a SL now placed below 111.50. Good resistance lies at 112.45/50 but above which could see a run towards 112.80/113.00 and higher.
Resistance Support
113.05 (76.4% of 114.36/108.80) 112.05 Minor
112.80 Descending trend resistance 111.80 100 DMA
112.60 Minor 111.60 (23.6% of 108.80/112.33)
112.46 Session high 111.40 200 HMA
112.22 (61.8% of 114.36/108.80) 111.05 (38.2% of 108.80/112.33) /200 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:

Bank of Japan Governor, Kuroda speech


GBPUSD: 1.2813
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mildly Bullish
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Upcoming market moving events: Carney speaking
24 Hour Outlook: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral. The technical picture looks better than the political scene. Possibly a buy but I remain neutral overall.
Resistance Support
1.2977 8 June high 1.2795 (23.6% of 1.2588/1.2860)
1.2940 (76.4% of 1.3047/1.2588) 1.2780 Minor
1.2905 Minor 1.2755 (38.2% of 1.2588/1.2860)
1.2875 (61.8% of 1.3047/1.2588) 1.2725 (50% pivot of 1.2588/1.2860)
1.2860 Session high 1.2705 26 June low

Economic data highlights will include:

BOE Governor, Mark Carney Speech


USDCHF: 0.9602
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Becoming oversold but pointing lower
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
  • Upcoming market moving events: Central Bank speakers incl. Draghi
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Chf fell hard, in line with the Euro move, wiping out any thoughts of a reverse head/shoulder formation. The momentum indicators seem to suggest that there is more to come on the downside but good support should lie at the November low (0.9548).
Resistance Support
0.9835 Minor 0.9591 Session low
0.9710 (23.6% of 1.0099/0.9591) 0.9575 Minor
0.9680 Minor 0.9548 9 Nov low
0.9640 Minor 0.9521 23 June ’16 low
0.9620 Minor 0.9500 Minor



AUDUSD: 0.7586
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Upcoming market moving events:
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Aud spiked up to 0.7623 in early Europe although that did not last long and since then, a move back to 0.7585 has been seen, leaving the overall outlook fairly neutral, with the momentum indicators offering little hint in either direction. I am not really sure on the Aud right now and prefer a neutral stance.
Resistance Support
0.7650 Minor 0.7576 Session low
0.7635/31 14 June high/15 June high 0.7559 26 June low
0.7623 20 June high /Session high 0.7533/35 (38.2% of 0.7370/0.7635) /Daily cloud top/22 June low
0.7600 Minor 0.7525/21/23 200 DMA /12 June low
0.7580 200 HMA 0.7502 (50% of 0.7370/0.7635)


NZDUSD: 0.7272
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Turning lower
  • Daily momentum indicators: Possibly topping out
  • Upcoming market moving events:
24 Hour Outlook: Turning lower Medium Term: Neutral – Turning lower?
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Kiwi spiked up to a 5 month high of 0.7343 on Tuesday but gave up those gains and is now back at 0.7265. The momentum indicators now look a little negative and selling rallies, with a tight SL back above 0.7300 may be a plan.
Resistance Support
0.7360 Minor 0.7265 Session low
0.7343 Session high 0.7248 23 June low
0.7320 Minor 0.7220 (23.6% of 0.6816/0.7343)
0.7300 Minor 0.7193 22 June low
0.7280 Minor 0.7185 15 June low

By | June 28, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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