28 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors: FXCharts

• Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
• Central Bankers galore, with more to come, including more from Draghi as well as Carney, Kuroda and Poloz.
• The main focus of the previous session were :
• Draghi: “All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the Euro area”
• and
• Yellen: “We intend to very gradually and predictably shrink our balance sheet” and “there are a number of reasons to believe interest rates will remain low as we normalize policy”.
• Currencies:
• The Euro took off on the back of Draghi’s optimistic comments, with the US$ somewhat undermined by Yellens more cautious outlook. Cable followed the Euro higher.
• The Yen remained under pressure on all fronts.
• The commodity bloc spiked higher but unable to maintain their strength, they are back at the previous closing levels.

EURUSD: 1.1340

• Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Overbought but pointing higher
• Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
• Upcoming market moving events: C/B speakers, including ECB Governor, Mario Draghi, US Pending Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories

24 Hour Outlook: Neutral  –  Possibly  sell here or buy a break of 1.1380		Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: While the momentum indicators now generally point to further Euro strength we are up against dome decent resistance so caution is warranted ahead of further words of wisdom from Draghi later today. While below the trend line resistance a sell, with a SL placed just above – at around 1.1375/80 – may be a plan
Resistance		Support
1.1450	Descending trend resistance	1.1294	(23.6% of 1.1117/1.1348)
1.1429	24 June ’16 high	1.1275	Minor
1.1400	Minor	1.1260	(38.2% of 1.1117/1.1348)
1.1366	18 Aug ’16 high	1.1234	(50% pivot of 1.1117/1.1348)
1.1348	Session high	1.1205	(61.8% of 1.1117/1.1348)

Economic data highlights will include:

German Import index, US Provisional, Wholesale Inventories, Goods Trade Balance, Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change, ECB Governor, Mario Draghi Speech

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USDJPY: 112.21

• Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mildly Bullish
• Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
• Upcoming market moving events: Kuroda speaking

24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips		Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The dollar is trading just below the 112.45 high and looks as though we may give the descending trend resistance at 112.80 a nudge in the near future. I prefer to buy dips, with a SL now placed below 111.50. Good resistance lies at 112.45/50 but above which could see a run towards 112.80/113.00 and higher.
Resistance		Support
113.05	(76.4% of 114.36/108.80)	112.05	Minor
112.80	Descending trend resistance	111.80	100 DMA
112.60	Minor	111.60	(23.6% of 108.80/112.33)
112.46	Session high	111.40	200 HMA
112.22	(61.8% of 114.36/108.80)	111.05	(38.2% of 108.80/112.33) /200 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:

Bank of Japan Governor, Kuroda speech

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GBPUSD: 1.2813

• Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mildly Bullish
• Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
• Upcoming market moving events: Carney speaking

24 Hour Outlook: Mildly Bullish		Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral. The technical picture looks better than the political scene. Possibly a buy but I remain neutral overall.
Resistance		Support
1.2977	8 June high	1.2795	(23.6% of 1.2588/1.2860)
1.2940	(76.4% of 1.3047/1.2588)	1.2780	Minor
1.2905	Minor	1.2755	(38.2% of 1.2588/1.2860)
1.2875	(61.8% of 1.3047/1.2588)	1.2725	(50% pivot of 1.2588/1.2860)
1.2860	Session high	1.2705	26 June low

Economic data highlights will include:

BOE Governor, Mark Carney Speech

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USDCHF: 0.9602

• Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Becoming oversold but pointing lower
• Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
• Upcoming market moving events: Central Bank speakers incl. Draghi

24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies		Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Chf fell hard, in line with the Euro move, wiping out any thoughts of a reverse head/shoulder formation. The momentum indicators seem to suggest that there is more to come on the downside but good support should lie at the November low (0.9548).
Resistance		Support
0.9835	Minor	0.9591	Session low
0.9710	(23.6% of 1.0099/0.9591)	0.9575	Minor
0.9680	Minor	0.9548	9 Nov low
0.9640	Minor	0.9521	23 June ’16 low
0.9620	Minor	0.9500	Minor

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AUDUSD: 0.7586

• Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Neutral
• Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
• Upcoming market moving events:

24 Hour Outlook: Neutral		Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Aud spiked up to 0.7623 in early Europe although that did not last long and since then, a move back to 0.7585 has been seen, leaving the overall outlook fairly neutral, with the momentum indicators offering little hint in either direction. I am not really sure on the Aud right now and prefer a neutral stance.
Resistance		Support
0.7650	Minor	0.7576	Session low
0.7635/31	14 June high/15 June high	0.7559	26 June low
0.7623	20 June high /Session high	0.7533/35	(38.2% of 0.7370/0.7635) /Daily cloud top/22 June low
0.7600	Minor	0.7525/21/23	200 DMA /12 June low
0.7580	200 HMA	0.7502	(50% of 0.7370/0.7635)

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NZDUSD: 0.7272

• Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Turning lower
• Daily momentum indicators: Possibly topping out
• Upcoming market moving events:

24 Hour Outlook: Turning lower		Medium Term: Neutral – Turning lower?
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Kiwi spiked up to a 5 month high of 0.7343 on Tuesday but gave up those gains and is now back at 0.7265. The momentum indicators now look a little negative and selling rallies, with a tight SL back above 0.7300 may be a plan.
Resistance		Support
0.7360	Minor	0.7265	Session low
0.7343	Session high	0.7248	23 June low
0.7320	Minor	0.7220	(23.6% of 0.6816/0.7343)
0.7300	Minor	0.7193	22 June low
0.7280	Minor	0.7185	15 June low