3 great FX moves last week ahead of FOMC

Last week: The market conditions have not suited my momentum-based trend trading TC system of late but there have been some great technical trade set ups, explained and alerted here during the last week, that have generated hundreds of pips. There were three trades highlighted early last week on the E/J that went for over 200 pips, the Cable for almost 200 pips and the GBP/JPY for over 300 pips. Even catching just a slice of some of these moves would have been very profitable!

Next week: There is a lot of high risk data scheduled for next week but Thursday’s FOMC is the most significant of these as traders look for any increase with US interest rates.

NB: I am away this w/e and so this is just a brief update. HOWEVER, I suspect the charts could look quite different after FOMC and so waiting for more detailed technical analysis until after then makes sense anyway.

Data to watch out for:

  • Sun 13th: CNY Industrial Production
  • Tue 15th: AUD Monetary Policy Minutes, BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes and Press Conference. GBP CPI.EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment. USD Retail Sales. NZD GDT Price Index.
  • Wed 16th: GBP Average Earnings & Unemployment Rate. CAD Manufacturing Sales. USD CPI.
  • Thurs 17th: NZD GDP. JPY BoJ Gov Kuroda speaks. CNY SNB Monetary Policy Statement. GBP Retail sales. USD Building Permits, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and FOMC.
  • Fri 18th: AUD RBA Gov Stevens speaks. CAD Core CPI.

US$ Index: this continues to struggle under the 100 level and is still ranging in a weekly Flag pattern:

DXYmonthly USDXweekly

EURX: also within a weekly Flag pattern:

EURXweekly

US Stocks:

DJIA: below the weekly Cloud and still below the psychological 17,000 level:

DJIAweeklyCloud

DJIA monthly: still looking for a possible test of 14,000:

DJIAmonthly

S&P500: still below the weekly Cloud and psychological 2,000 level:

S&P500weeklyCloud

S&P500 monthly: I’m still looking for a possible test of 1,600 here:

S&Pmonthly

FOREX:

EUR/JPY 4hr: I wrote earlier in the week that any hold back above 134 might target the congested 136 region. This technical trade evolved like clock work and gave up to 200 pips! This was how the chart looked in the post where I issued the alert:

EJ4

This is how the chart finished for the week and after a test of the 61.8% fib as suggested. Price stumbled there for a while during the Friday Asian session but then kicked on a bit higher:

EJ4

E/J monthly Cloud chart: It is worth noting that there has been a new bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the monthly chart and these events are few and far between. There have only been four T/K crosses since 2001! So it might pay to watch for any signs of renewed bearish sentiment.

EJmonthlyCloud

EUR/JPY weekly Cloud: this is trying to push back up through the weekly Cloud and has printed a bullish, almost ‘engulfing’ candle:

EJweeklyCloud

GBP/USD 4hr: whilst thinking this looked headed to 1.50 the bounce on the Cable at the start of this week had me then looking for a possible test back up at 1.55. This 1.55 level offered a fair bit of resistance from the 50% fib, 4hr 200 EMA and monthly pivot. The pull back move eventually evolved as suspected and ended up giving around 200 pips. This was how the GBP/USD looked back when the alert was posted on Twitter:

GU4

This is how the chart finished for the week with almost 200 pips on offer from thetime of the alert until the first resistance level of the 4hr 200 EMA was reached:

GU4

GBP/USD weekly Cloud: price has the Cloud as resistance ahead but note the large, bullish-coloured weekly candle:

GUweeklyCloud

GBP/JPY 4hr: I also posted about this earlier in the week and suggested looking for a test of the 189 level IF there was a break and hold above the key 184 level. This move also played out as expected and ended up giving over 300 pips after leaving 184 behind. This was how the chart appeared earlier in the week when the alert was posted:

GJ4hr

This was how the GBP/JPY chart finished for the week. Whilst not quite making it up to the 61.8% fib region it settled around 200 pips above the 184 level but not before stretching up over 300 pips higher during the week:

GJ4hr

GBP/JPY weekly Cloud: holding above the Cloud but an ‘indecision’ style candle although bullish in colour:

GJweeklyCloud

EUR/USD: this continues ranging within a weekly Flag pattern and I’m wondering if FOMC might provide the news to trigger a breakout:

EUweekly EU4

E/U weekly Cloud: the weekly Cloud is resistance above current price action but note the bullish, almost ‘engulfing’ candle:

EUweeklyCloud

AUD/USD: this could also look quite different next week depending on whether a US rate hike is announced. The Aussie managed to scrape the week back above the 0.70 level but some traders will be looking for price action to pull back further and test the broken monthly trend line so as to set up a new SHORT.

AUmonthlyCloud AU4

A/U weekly Cloud: price is below the Cloud and there was a bullish coloured ‘Inside’ acndle reflecting some indecision here:

AUweeklyCloud

Kiwi: this found support at 0.625 and has managed to print a bullish-reversal ‘Inverted Hammer’ candle, despite the RBNZ rate cut. There is a potential 1,000 pip Bear Flag brewing but any failure to hike US interest rates could see this pair bounce even higher. A rate hike though might trigger continuation with the Bear Flag:

KiwiWeekly Kiwi4

USD/JPY: this did little last week ahead of FOMC and I’m still on the lookout for a deepr pullback, or at least more choppiness around 124.

UJ4 UJmonthly

U/J weekly Cloud: price is above the Cloud but note the indecision style ‘Inside’ candle. At least it was bullish coloured:

UJweeklyCloud

Loonie: this is ranging on the 4hr chart but note the major 61.8% fib resistance just above current price on the monthly chart. Any failure to hike rates, along with an associated bounce in commodities, could be the trigger to see this pair pull back from this 61.8% fib level:

LoonieMonthly Loonie4hr

GBP/AUD: the monthly chart has my interest here…I’m looking for either continuation to test the 61.8% fib or a pull back to test 2.07 but there is no clear sign of either move just yet:

GAmonthly

GBP/NZD: this is still consolidating under a major monthly bear trend line and becoming more squeezed into the apex of the 4hr triangle:

GN4hr GNdaily

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