3 Oct: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + Trade Ideas: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.1734
Preferred Strategy: While we may need some short term consolidation, the dailies are looking heavy and selling rallies is preferred. Sell EurUsd @ 1.1780. SL @ 1.1820, TP @ 1.1650.
24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.1860 26 Sept high / (50% of 1.2005/1.1716) 1.1729 Session low
1.1825 (38.2% of 1.2005/1.1716) 1.1720/16 (38.2% of 1.1118/1.2091)/Daily cloud top/27 Sept low
1.1815 Session high 1.1700 Minor
1.1800 Minor 1.1685 Minor
1.1780 Minor 1.1661 17 Aug low

Economic data highlights will include:

T: EU PPI, Fed’s Powel Speech, ISM NY Index – Business Conditions, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory



USDJPY: 112.72
Preferred Strategy: Short term choppy trade looks likely but I think the dollar is likely to head higher eventually so buying dips is preferred. Buy UsdJpy @ 112.30. SL @ 111.90, TP @ 113.20
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
113.70 Minor 112.43 Session low
113.55 Minor 112.32 29 Sept low
113.20/25 29 Sept high/27 Sept high 112.20 27 Sept low
113.05 Session high 112.05 200 DMA /Daily Tenkan
112.85 Minor 111.80 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

T:  Consumer Confidence



GBPUSD: 1.3278
Preferred Strategy: Cable is heavy and looks as though it has further downside potential. The upcoming Construction PMI will be closely watched and the risk is probably to a better than expected figure. Stay square till then and then go with the flow. Given that the US$ looks bid though trading from the short side is preferred.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.3390 100 HMA 1.3255 Session low
1.3375 Minor 1.3243 (38.2% of 1.2588/1.3656)
1.3345 (23.6% of 1.3656/1.3255) 1.3213 (50% pivot of 1.2773/1.3656)
1.3325 Minor 1.3180 Minor
1.3300 Minor 1.3149 14 Sept low

Economic data highlights will include:

T: UK Construction PMI



USDCHF: 0.9748
Preferred Strategy: US$Chf is choppy but is closing on a positive note and I suspect that at some stage soon we are in for another test of 0.9770. Trading from the long side is preferred or look to buy a break of 0.9770.Buy US$Chf @ 0.9715. SL @ 0.9680, TP @ 0.9805.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral – Buy a break of 0.9770
Resistance Support
0.9808 30 May  high 0.9725 Minor
0.9785 Minor 0.9700 Minor
0.9772 8 Aug high/(38.2% of 1.0343/0.9420) 0.9676 Session low
0.9769 27 Sept high 0.9641 25 Sept low
0.9758/54 29 Sept high /Session high 0.9635 (38.2% of 0.9420/0.9769)


AUDUSD: 0.7825
Preferred Strategy: The RBA will provide the direction today and although I prefer to be short for the medium term trade we could yet see a spike higher so looking to sell rallies is preferred. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7870. SL @ 0.7905, TP @ 0.7785.
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
0.7935 (38.2% of 0.8102/0.7835) 0.7815 Minor
0.7900 (23.6% of 0.8102/0.7835) 0.7800 Minor
0.7882 27 Sept high 0.7794 Session low
0.7859 29 Sept high 0.7785 18 July low
0.7847 Session high 0.7760 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

T: New Home Sales, Building Permits, RBA Interest Rate Decision



NZDUSD: 0.7190
Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi is still chopping around near 0.7200 and now has a triple bottom at 0.7165. A neutral stance is currently required although I do prefer to sell into strength, looking for an eventual break lower, initially targeting the 200 DMA.NB. The NZ Business Confidence has just been released – falling hard from 18 to 5 – an 18 month low. This won’t do the Kiwi any good and the increasing preference is to sell into strength. Note that the latest GDT figure will be released in London.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7285 Minor 0.7180 Minor
0.7268 (38.2% of 0.7434/0.7166) /200 HMA 0.7167/66 26 Sept low/29 Sept low/Session low
0.7255 Minor 0.7142/47 4 Sept low/200 DMA
0.7238/39 29 Sept high/27 Sept high 0.7131 31 Aug low
0.7225 Session high 0.7105 (61.8% of 0.6817/0.7558)

Economic data highlights will include:

T: NZIER Business Confidence, Global Dairy Trade Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory


By | October 3, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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