- Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
- German CPI; + 0.2% mm vs expectations of 0.0%, +1.6% yy vs 1.4% exp.
- US Q1 GDP +1.4% vs expectations of 1.2%. Jobless claims: as expected, 244K vs 240K estimate.
- Currencies:
- Euro supported by rising yields after the strong German inflation data.
- Cable underpinned by Carney’s comments of the previous session and by better than expected Lending figures, keeping hopes of a rate hike alive.
- The Yen was under pressure for much of the session as cross plays continued to dominate. It recovered later in the day to finish more or less unchanged as dollar sellers emerged.
- Aud underpinned by general US$ weakness and helped by another rise in the Iron Ore Price (63.33 pt)
| EURUSD: 1.1439 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Mixed; becoming overbought.
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Upcoming market moving events: EU CPI, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Euro has now tested the major descending trend resistance seen at 1.1450, a break of which would target the May 2016 high of 1.1616. 1.1450 may well hold for now given the overbought nature of the 4 hour charts, but buying dips still seems to be the theme. Raise SL to 1.1385. Back below there could see a slide back to 1.1300, but buying dips still seems to be the plan. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1616 | May 2016 high | 1.1400 | Minor |
| 1.1540 | Minor | 1.1367 | (23.6% of 1.1117/1.1445) |
| 1.1500 | Minor | 1.1320 | (38.2% of 1.1117/1.1445) |
| 1.1480 | Minor | 1.1285 | (50% of 1.1117/1.1445) |
| 1.1445 | Descending trend resistance/Session high | 1.1242 | (61.8% of 1.1117/1.1445) |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Retail Sales, EU CPI, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Price Index , Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
…
| USDJPY: 112.11 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Turning lower
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Upcoming market moving events: Japan CPI, Unemployment, Industrial Production, Construction Orders, Vehicle Production, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Jpy reached 112.92 on Thursday but has so far been unable to make a sustained move above the 6 month descending trend resistance at 112.80 and this will remain a formidable level to overcome. Now back at 112.00, the 100 DMA remain key support, below which will allow a run back towards the 200 DMA at 111.15. The outlook remains mixed although buying dips on any move to 111.00 remains the medium term plan. In the meantime, selling rallies towards 112.50, looking for another test of 111.80 may be a play for Friday. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 113.05 | (76.4% of 114.36/108.80) | 111.95 | (23.6% of 108.80/112.92) |
| 112.92 | Session high | 111.80 | Session low /100 DMA |
| 111.80 | Minor | 111.65 | 200 HMA |
| 112.60 | Minor | 111.35 | (38.2% of 108.80/112.92) |
| 112.45 | Minor | 111.15 | 200 DMA |
Economic data highlights will include:
Japan CPI, Unemployment, Industrial Production, Construction Orders, Vehicle Production
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3004 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Up
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Upcoming market moving events: UK GDP, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Cable has now taken out 1.3000 and looks capable of testing the May high/ descending trend resistance at 1.3050/60, which should be strong if we get there. If 1.3060 is taken out look for an acceleration towards 1.3120 and then possibly on towards 1.3300. If 1.3060 holds then we may see another leg lower within the broad triangle formation but this looks less likely. Buying dips towards 1.2900 is again the plan, with a SL now placed under 1.2850. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.3120 | 22 Sept high | 1.3000 | Pivot |
| 1.3100 | Minor | 1.2975 | Minor |
| 1.3060 | Descending trend resistance /(76.4% of 1.3438/1.1822) | 1.2915 | Minor |
| 1.3047 | 18 May high | 1.2913 | (23.6% of 1.2588/1.3015) |
| 1.3015 | Session high | 1.2850 | (38.2% of 1.2588/1.3015) |
Economic data highlights will include:
Q1 GDP, Total Business Investment
…
| USDCHF: 0.9557 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Mixed/Down
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Chf is still heavy, in line with the dollar move seen elsewhere and looks set to test the November spike low of 0.9548, not so far away. A sustained break would allow a run towards 0.9500 and lower. Selling rallies is preferred. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9680 | (23.6% of 1.0099/0.9555) | 0.9555 | Session low |
| 0.9647 | 28 June high | 0.9548 | 9 Nov low |
| 0.9615 | Minor | 0.9521 | 23 June ’16 low |
| 0.9598 | Session high | 0.9500 | Minor |
| 0.9575 | Minor | 0.9470 | Minor |
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7683 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mixed/Up
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Upcoming market moving events: China Mfg/Non Mfg PMI, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Aud is now sitting up against the descending trend resistance at 0.7685 and looks as though it wants to test higher ground. Higher Copper and Iron Ore prices are doing it no harm and a break of 0.7685 suggests a run to 0.7725/50. The dailies are also now pointing higher, so buying dips towards 0.7650/35, with a SL now placed below 0.7600 seems to be a plan. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7777 | 8 Nov high | 0.7650 | Minor |
| 0.7749 | 21 Mar high | 0.7635 | Minor |
| 0.7725 | Descending trend resistance | 0.7600 | (23.6% of 0.7329/0.7685) |
| 0.7700 | Minor | 0.7578 | 28 June low |
| 0.7685 | Descending trend resistance/ Session high | 0.7550 | (38.2% of 0.7329/0.7685) |
Economic data highlights will include: RBA Debelle Speech
Private Sector Credit, China Mfg/Non Mfg PMI
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7297 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
- Upcoming market moving events: Building Permits, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Kiwi has been unable to make further progress on Thursday and is currently sitting at 0.7300 which acted as a pivot for Thursday. A cautious stance is required for Friday as the short term momentum indicators are now neutral. The dailies also certain, but if the US$ remains under pressure elsewhere, buying dips towards 0.7275/80, with a SL placed just under 0.7250 may be a plan on Friday. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7402 | 8 Nov high | 0.7275 | Session low |
| 0.7360 | Minor | 0.7253 | 28 June low |
| 0.7343 | 26 June high | 0.7220 | (23.6% of 0.6816/0.7343) |
| 0.7331 | Session high | 0.7193 | 22 June low |
| 0.7300 | Pivot | 0.7185 | 15 June low |
Economic data highlights will include:
Building Permits
By June 30, 2017
Source: FXCharts