30 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors: FXCharts

  • Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
  • German CPI; + 0.2% mm vs expectations of 0.0%, +1.6% yy vs 1.4% exp.
  • US Q1 GDP +1.4% vs expectations of 1.2%. Jobless claims: as expected, 244K vs 240K estimate.
  • Currencies:
  • Euro supported by rising yields after the strong German inflation data.
  • Cable underpinned by Carney’s comments of the previous session and by better than expected Lending figures, keeping hopes of a rate hike alive.
  • The Yen was under pressure for much of the session as cross plays continued to dominate. It recovered later in the day to finish more or less unchanged as dollar sellers emerged.
  • Aud underpinned by general US$ weakness and helped by another rise in the Iron Ore Price (63.33 pt)
EURUSD: 1.1439
  • Short term momentum indicators: Mixed; becoming overbought.
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Upcoming market moving events: EU CPI, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  The Euro has now tested the major descending trend resistance seen at 1.1450, a break of which would target the May 2016 high of 1.1616. 1.1450 may well hold for now given the overbought nature of the 4 hour charts, but buying dips still seems to be the theme. Raise SL to 1.1385. Back below there could see a slide back to 1.1300, but buying dips still seems to be the plan.
Resistance Support
1.1616 May 2016 high 1.1400 Minor
1.1540 Minor 1.1367 (23.6% of 1.1117/1.1445)
1.1500 Minor 1.1320 (38.2% of 1.1117/1.1445)
1.1480 Minor 1.1285 (50% of 1.1117/1.1445)
1.1445 Descending trend resistance/Session high 1.1242 (61.8% of 1.1117/1.1445)

Economic data highlights will include:

German Retail Sales, EU CPI, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Price Index , Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index


USDJPY: 112.11
  • Short term momentum indicators: Turning lower
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Upcoming market moving events: Japan CPI, Unemployment, Industrial Production, Construction Orders, Vehicle Production, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Jpy reached 112.92 on Thursday but has so far been unable to make a sustained move above the 6 month descending trend resistance at 112.80 and this will remain a formidable level to overcome.  Now back at 112.00, the 100 DMA remain key support, below which will allow a run back towards the 200 DMA at 111.15. The outlook remains mixed although buying dips on any move to 111.00 remains the medium term plan. In the meantime, selling rallies towards 112.50, looking for another test of 111.80 may be a play for Friday.
Resistance Support
113.05 (76.4% of 114.36/108.80) 111.95 (23.6% of 108.80/112.92)
112.92 Session high 111.80 Session low /100 DMA
111.80 Minor 111.65 200 HMA
112.60 Minor 111.35 (38.2% of 108.80/112.92)
112.45 Minor 111.15 200 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:          

Japan CPI, Unemployment, Industrial Production, Construction Orders, Vehicle Production



GBPUSD: 1.3004
  • Short term momentum indicators: Up
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Upcoming market moving events: UK GDP, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Cable has now taken out 1.3000 and looks capable of testing the May high/ descending trend resistance at 1.3050/60, which should be strong if we get there. If 1.3060 is taken out look for an acceleration towards 1.3120 and then possibly on towards 1.3300. If 1.3060 holds then we may see another leg lower within the broad triangle formation but this looks less likely. Buying dips towards 1.2900 is again the plan, with a SL now placed under 1.2850.
Resistance Support
1.3120 22 Sept high 1.3000 Pivot
1.3100 Minor 1.2975 Minor
1.3060 Descending trend resistance /(76.4% of 1.3438/1.1822) 1.2915 Minor
1.3047 18 May high 1.2913 (23.6% of 1.2588/1.3015)
1.3015 Session high 1.2850 (38.2% of 1.2588/1.3015)

Economic data highlights will include:

Q1 GDP, Total Business Investment


USDCHF: 0.9557
  • Short term momentum indicators: Mixed/Down
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Chf is still heavy, in line with the dollar move seen elsewhere and looks set to test the November spike low of 0.9548, not so far away. A sustained break would allow a run towards 0.9500 and lower. Selling rallies is preferred.
Resistance Support
0.9680 (23.6% of 1.0099/0.9555) 0.9555 Session low
0.9647 28 June high 0.9548 9 Nov low
0.9615 Minor 0.9521 23 June ’16 low
0.9598 Session high 0.9500 Minor
0.9575 Minor 0.9470 Minor


AUDUSD: 0.7683
  • Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mixed/Up
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Upcoming market moving events: China Mfg/Non Mfg PMI, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Aud is now sitting up against the descending trend resistance at 0.7685 and looks as though it wants to test higher ground. Higher Copper and Iron Ore prices are doing it no harm and a break of 0.7685 suggests a run to 0.7725/50.  The dailies are also now pointing higher, so buying dips towards 0.7650/35, with a SL now placed below 0.7600 seems to be a plan.
Resistance Support
0.7777 8 Nov high 0.7650 Minor
0.7749 21 Mar high 0.7635 Minor
0.7725 Descending trend resistance 0.7600 (23.6% of 0.7329/0.7685)
0.7700 Minor 0.7578 28 June low
0.7685 Descending trend resistance/ Session high 0.7550 (38.2% of 0.7329/0.7685)

Economic data highlights will include: RBA Debelle Speech

Private Sector Credit, China Mfg/Non Mfg PMI


NZDUSD: 0.7297
  • Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Upcoming market moving events: Building Permits, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Kiwi has been unable to make further progress on Thursday and is currently sitting at 0.7300 which acted as a pivot for Thursday. A cautious stance is required for Friday as the short term momentum indicators are now neutral. The dailies also certain, but if the US$ remains under pressure elsewhere, buying dips towards 0.7275/80, with a SL placed just under 0.7250 may be a plan on Friday.
Resistance Support
0.7402 8 Nov high 0.7275 Session low
0.7360 Minor 0.7253 28 June low
0.7343 26 June high 0.7220 (23.6% of 0.6816/0.7343)
0.7331 Session high 0.7193 22 June low
0.7300 Pivot 0.7185 15 June low

Economic data highlights will include:

Building Permits

By | June 30, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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