4 Oct: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + Trade Ideas: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.1742
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look a little more positive today so the downside momentum that is building in the dailies looks to be on hold for the coming session. A squeeze back towards 1.1800 would not surprise, but selling rallies remains the preferred strategy. Sell EurUsd @ 1.1800. SL @ 1.1840, TP @ 1.1650.
24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.1850 (50% pivot of 1.2005/1.1995) 1.1725 Minor
1.1832 29 Sept high 1.1700 200 WMA
1.1815 2 Oct high /(38.2% of 1.2005/1.1995) 1.16955 Session low
1.1800 Minor 1.1661 17 Aug low
1.1773 Session high 1.1612 26 July low

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                 

W: ECB Non- MP Minutes, EU Composite, Services PMIs, EU Retail Sales, US Services, Composite PMIs, ISM Non-Mfg PMI, ADP Jobs data, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change, Mario Draghi Speech, Janet Yellen Speech


USDJPY: 112.86
Preferred Strategy:  The dollar looks a little top heavy after another failed attempt above 113.00 and we may head a little lower. It may be though that we are in for further choppy trade and I think the dollar will head higher eventually, so buying dips is preferred. Buy UsdJpy @ 112.25. SL @ 111.90, TP @ 113.20
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
114.00 Minor 112.61 Session low
113.70 Minor 112.43 2 Oct low
113.55 Minor 112.32 29 Sept low
113.19/20/25 Session high /29 Sept high/27 Sept high 112.20 27 Sept low
113.00 Minor 112.05 200 DMA /Daily Tenkan


GBPUSD: 1.3236
Preferred Strategy:  Cable remains heavy following the poor outcome from the UK Construction PMI and further medium term downside momentum seems likely. The short term momentum indicators are becoming a little oversold so for the time being it is best to stay square, and looking to sell rallies would seem to be the plan.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.3375 Minor 1.3221 Session low
1.3345 (23.6% of 1.3656/1.3255) 1.3213 (50% pivot of 1.2773/1.3656)
1.3315 100 WMA 1.3180 Minor
1.3300 Minor 1.3149 14 Sept low
1.3287 Session high 1.3110 (61.8 of 1.2773/1.3656)


USDCHF: 0.9736
Preferred Strategy:  For the time being US$Chf remains within its choppy uptrend, but having made a new high at 0.9785 the dollar is currently looking a bit heavy at 0.9735, with the short term momentum indicators suggesting that further weakness may lie ahead today. The dailies still look positive, so buying dips remains the favoured plan, looking for an eventual run to/beyond 0.9800. Buy US$Chf @ 0.9710. SL @ 0.9665, TP @ 0.9805.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
0.9850 200 WMA 0.9728 Session low
0.9840 200 DMA 0.9710 200 HMA /Rising trend support
0.9808 30 May high 0.9885 Minor
0.9785 Session high 0.9676 2 Oct low
0.9750 Minor 0.9650 100 DMA


AUDUSD: 0.7832
Preferred Strategy:  Having been down to 07785 the Aud has recovered well and looks as though it may have formed a short term base, with the chance of a squeeze back towards 0.7875/85. The dailies still look heavy though, so selling into strength remains the medium term strategy.
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
0.7925 Minor 0.7820 Minor
0.7905 (38.2% of 0.8102/0.7785) 0.7800 Minor
0.7882 27 Sept high 0.7785 Session low/18 July low
0.7859 (23.6% of 0.8102/0.7785) 0.7767 100 DMA
0.7847 2 Oct high 0.7750 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

W:  AIG Services PMI



NZDUSD: 0.7157
Preferred Strategy:  The Kiwi remains heavy following the Milk Auction (GDT PI -2.4%, WMP -2.7%) and the techs look bearish so trading from the short side is preferred. Given the slightly heavy feel of the US$ elsewhere, looking to sell any near term rally towards 0.7200 would seem to be the plan.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7250 Minor 0.7142/47 4 Sept low/200 DMA/Session low
0.7238/39 29 Sept high/27 Sept high 0.7131 31 Aug low
0.7225 2 Oct high/23.6% of 0.7434/0.7157 0.7100 (61.8% of 0.6817/0.7558)
0.7197 Session high 0.7085 Minor
0.7180 Minor 0.7070 Minor

By | October 4, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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