5 Oct: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + Trade Ideas: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.1763
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators  still look mildly positive today so the downside momentum that is building in the dailies appears to be on hold for now, and that will probably remain the case until the US employment report when a decent number will be needed to propel the dollar higher. If not, look for a retest of 1.1800/50. A squeeze back towards 1.1800 could still be on the cards today, but selling rallies remains the preferred strategy. Sell EurUsd @ 1.1800. SL @ 1.1840, TP @ 1.1650.
24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.1850 (50% pivot of 1.2005/1.1995) 1.1735 Session low
1.1832 29 Sept high 1.1700 200 WMA
1.1815 2 Oct high /(38.2% of 1.2005/1.1995) 1.16955 3 Oct low
1.1800 Minor 1.1661 17 Aug low
1.1787 Session high 1.1612 26 July low

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                 

T: ECB MP Minutes, US Trade Balance, Factory Orders, Speeches; Fed’s Powell, Harker, Haldane, George



USDJPY: 112.70
Preferred Strategy:  The dollar remains rangebound within the 112.20/113.20 area and this appears set to continue today, while waiting on the NFP figure tomorrow. As before, I think the dollar will eventually head higher, so buying dips is preferred. Buy UsdJpy @ 112.25. SL @ 111.90, TP @ 113.20
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
114.00 Minor
113.70 Minor 112.50 Minor
113.55 Minor 112.32 Session low/29 Sept low
113.19/20/25 3 Oct high /29 Sept high/27 Sept high 112.20 27 Sept low
112.93 Session high 112.05 200 DMA /Daily Tenkan


GBPUSD: 1.3256
Preferred Strategy:  Cable remains heavy despite Wednesday’s data, which showed that the UK PMI Services rose to 53.6 in September, up from 53.2 and above expectation of 53.2.Further medium term downside momentum seems likely although the short term momentum indicators are becoming a little oversold so for the time being it is best to stay square, and looking to sell rallies would seem to be the plan.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.3375 Minor 1.3233 Session low
1.3345 (23.6% of 1.3656/1.3255) 1.3213 (50% pivot of 1.2773/1.3656)
1.3315 100 WMA 1.3180 Minor
1.3300 Minor 1.3149 14 Sept low
1.3291 Session high 1.3110 (61.8 of 1.2773/1.3656)


USDCHF: 0.9747
Preferred Strategy:  US$Chf remains within its choppy uptrend at the end of Wednesday’s trade after a rangebound session. The dailies still look positive, so, as with yesterday, buying dips remains the favoured plan, looking for an eventual run to/beyond 0.9800. Buy US$Chf @ 0.9710. SL @ 0.9665, TP @ 0.9805.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
0.9850 200 WMA 0.9725 Minor
0.9840 200 DMA 0.9710/08 200 HMA /Rising trend support /Session low
0.9808 30 May high 0.9885 Minor
0.9785 3 Oct high 0.9676 2 Oct low
0.9761 Session high 0.9650 100 DMA


AUDUSD: 0.7862
Preferred Strategy:  The Aud remains choppy and rangebound either side of 0.7850, pretty much where it currently sits. Today’s Retail Sales and Trade Balance will provide the direction and the short term momentum indicators do suggest the chance for another squeeze to the topside. The dailies still point lower though, so overall I still prefer to sell into strength. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7900. SL @ 7945, TP @ 7785.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
0.7940 (50% of 0.8102/0.7785) 0.7829 Session low
0.7925 Minor 0.7800 Minor
0.7905 (38.2% of 0.8102/0.7785) 0.7785 3 Oct low/18 July low
0.7882 27 Sept high 0.7767 100 DMA
0.7874 Session high 0.7750 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

T:  Retail Sales, Trade Balance



NZDUSD: 0.7168
Preferred Strategy:  The Kiwi remains heavy following today’s brief squeeze up to 0.7204. The short term momentum indicators do suggest the chance of another small move higher but the dailies look increasingly heavy, so as with yesterday, selling at 0.7200+ seems to be the pan.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
0.7250 Minor 0.7142/47 4 Sept low/200 DMA/4 Oct low
0.7238/39 29 Sept high/27 Sept high 0.7131 31 Aug low
0.7225 2 Oct high/23.6% of 0.7434/0.7157 0.7100 (61.8% of 0.6817/0.7558)
0.7204 Session high 0.7085 Minor
0.7180 Minor 0.7070 Minor

By | October 5, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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