| EURUSD: 1.2029 |
| €/Usd has traded sideways, in choppy trade on Friday following the NFP reading, confined to a 1.2020/82 range and with more of the same looking likely early in the week.The dailies still look positive though and if we can take out the 8 Sept high of 1.2098 it would then open up the chance of a move towards 1.2160 and in the bigger picture, towards 1.24 (200 MMA). In the meantime the short term momentum indicators are mixed and could see further choppy trade above 1.2000, below which would possibly allow a run to 1.1950/60. The EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey will be in focus today along with the Dec EU retail sales and EU consumer confidence. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The medium term charts hint at further gains, so for Monday buying dips again seems to be the plan although it could be a similar range to Friday. Use 1.2000/1.2080 as a guide.Buy EurUsd @ 1.1985. SL @ 1.2055, TP @ 1.2090 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2160 | (50% pivot of 1.3993/1.0340) | 1.2020 | Friday low | ||
| 1.2120 | Minor | 1.2000 | 3 Jan low | ||
| 1.2091 | 8 Sept high | 1.1980 | Minor | ||
| 1.2088/82 | 4 Jan high/Friday high | 1.1955 | (23.6% of 1.553/1.2025) | ||
| 1.2060 | Minor | 1.1920 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: German Factory Orders, EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, Retail Sales
T: German Industrial Production, Trade Balance, EU Unemployment, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
W: EU Non-Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, EU Economic Outlook, US Import/Export Index, Wholesale Inventories, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change
T: EU Industrial Production, ECB Monetary Policy Minutes, US PPI, Jobless Claims
F: US Retail Sales, CPI, Monthly Budget Statement, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count.
…
| USDJPY: 113.06 |
| US$Jpy headed higher in Asia/Europe on Friday in reaching 113.30, and then consolidated above 113.00 for the balance of the session. While the short term momentum indicators look slightly more constructive on Monday, the longer term charts remain pretty flat so I suspect further choppy sideways trade within the broad 112/114 range is in store, with a mild near-term upside bias. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. | Daily Indicators: Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: I don’t really have too much of a directional view of US$Jpy right now although while the stock market continues to make gains the dollar should remain well underpinned, and I suspect the upside is the direction to concentrate on. In the meantime, 113.30/35 should continue to see decent sellers although a break would allow 113.75/80 and possible 114.00. Above 114.20 would then see a break of the descending trend resistance which could see an acceleration higher. Strong support lies in the 112/112.30 area. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 114.20 | Descending trend resistance | 113.00 | Minor | ||
| 114.00 | Minor | 112.80 | 200 HMA | ||
| 113.75/80 | 12 Dec high /(76.4% of 114.73/110.83) | 112.50 | Minor | ||
| 113.63 | 21 Dec high | 112.35 | 200 WMA | ||
| 113.30 | Friday high | 112.02 | 15 Dec low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: Holiday
T:
W:
T: Leading Economic Index, Coincident Index
F: Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment, Current Account, Trade Balance
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3565 |
| Sterling traded sideways on Friday, ending the week at much the same levels it started, with traders awaiting further developments on Brexit negotiations before forming any definitive view as to the next direction. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning higher? | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are now mixed and a neutral stance is probably wise, but the dailies still look constructive so, as with the Euro, buying dips currently seems to be the plan while keeping a tight stop in place.Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3500. SL @ 1.3475, TP @ 1.3600 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.3700 | Minor | 1.3550 | Minor | ||
| 1.3656 | 20 Sept high | 1.3522 | Friday low | ||
| 1.3635 | Minor | 1.3494 | 3 Jan low | ||
| 1.3612 | 3 Jan high | 1.3480 | 200 HMA | ||
| 1.3582 | Friday high | 1.3475 | (23.6% of 1.3038/1.3612) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T:
W: UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production, Trade Balance, Goods Trade Balance
T:
F:
…
| USDCHF: 0.9746 |
| US$Chf traded sideways in choppy fashion on Friday, confined to 0.9738/83 and leaving a neutral stance as the best option on Monday. With the daily charts still pointing lower, further upside momentum above 0.9800 may prove tricky in the near term and selling rallies appears to be the plan. Another test of 0.9700 and potentially 0.9650 may be on the cards in the days ahead. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning lower? | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The dailies are heavy and so in the short term, selling rallies at the support-turned-resistance, at around 0.9780/90 would seem to be the plan.Sell US$Chf @ 0.9790. SL @ 0.9815, TP @ 0.9685 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9870 | (61.8% of 0.9977/0.9699) | 0.9738 | Friday low | ||
| 0.9835 | (50% of 0.9977/0.9699) | 0.9720 | Minor | ||
| 0.9805 | (38.2% of 0.9977/0.9699) | 0.9699 | 2 Jan low | ||
| 0.9797 | 3 Jan high | 0.9685 | Minor | ||
| 0.9780/83 | 100 DMA/200 DMA /Friday high | 0.9655 | (61.8% of 0.9420/01.0037) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: CPI
T: Consumer Confidence
W:
T:
F:
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7862 |
| AudUsd traded up to a new trend high of 0.7875 on Friday, late in the day and closing nearby, and with the daily charts looking constructive further gains would seem possible this week, with 0.7900 being the next target, particularly while risk sentiment remains positive, as seen through the stock markets. In the meantime, the short term momentum indicators are showing a degree of bearish divergence so some caution is warranted and we could see a dip back towards the rising-trend support, currently at 0.7830. The AIG Performance of Construction Index will be the focus today, with the China CPI, PPI, New Loans, Retail Sales and Trade Balance all due later in the week. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Neutral –Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The 4 hour indicators still look a little toppish so another move back towards 0.7830 would not surprise, below which, 0.7800/0.7810 would attract but buying dips still seems to be the plan. I find it difficult to be long Aud at these levels so prefer to stand aside. Further out though, if the US dollar remains weak, a medium term move towards 0.8000 should not be ruled out. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7935 | Descending trend resistance | 0.7850 | Minor | ||
| 0.7910 | Monthly cloud base | 0.7830 | Rising trend support | ||
| 0.7900 | Minor | 0.7815 | Minor | ||
| 0.7883 | 19 Dec | 0.7790 | 2 Jan low | ||
| 0.7870 | Friday high | 0.7780 | 100 DMA / (23.6% of 0.7500/0.7870) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: AIG Performance of Construction Index, China Foreign Exchange Reserves
T: ANZ Job Ads, Building Permits
W: NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, China CPI, PPI, New Loans
T: Retail Sales
F: China Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Foreign Asset Investment, Foreign Direct Investment
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7167 |
| The Kiwi traded up to a spike high of 0.7186 on Friday, and with the dailies looking positive further gains would seems possible in the days ahead although, with the 4 hour charts showing a degree of bearish divergence, buying dips would seem to be the plan. At these levels though I prefer to remain flat. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The outlook is pretty much the same as that for the Aud, and a neutral stance is currently preferred although if the dollar stays soft and risk-sentiment positive, then a run above 0.7200 should not be ruled out. The short term momentum indicators are showing some bearish divergence and a drift back towards 0.7145/50 would not surprise but buying dips seems to be the longer term plan. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7244 | 29 Sept high | 0.7144 | Friday low | ||
| 0.7225 | Minor | 0.7130 | Minor | ||
| 0.7210 | 13 Oct high | 0.7105 | 200 DMA/55 WMA | ||
| 0.7200 | Minor | 0.7090 | (23.6% of 0.6787/0.7186)/200 HMA | ||
| 0.7186 | Friday high | 0.7065 | 100 WMA | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T:
W:
T:
F: Building Permits
By January 8, 2018
Source: FXCharts