Act 1: ECB. Act 2: NFP?

Dovish comments from ECB President Draghi have resulted in the EUR falling and the US$ rising ahead of the the next big data event for the week, tonight’s NFP. The prospect of expanded ECB QE resulted in gains for European stocks but a bearish triangle breakout on the EURX and bullish breakout on the USDX. Upbeat US manufacturing and Trade Balance data was then added in to this mix, however, US stock indices finished mixed and hover under key S/R levels ahead of tonight’s NFP. This is the last major data item before any September Fed rate decision and traders will be keenly watching this print to then try and gauge the September FOMC outcome.

 EURX 4hr: got the triangle breakdown post ECB comments:


EURX weekly: don’t get too excited just yet though as the weekly chart still reveals an overall range-trading pattern:


USDX 4hr: triangle breakout here too:


USDX weekly: still basically range-trading here though as well:


US Stocks: closed mixed for the day BUT all three major indices are trading BELOW significant S/R levels: the DJIA below 17,000, the S&P500 below 2,000 and the NASDAQ below 4,800. I’ll be watching to see if a decent NFP print can get these three back above the key levels to close out the week:

US stocks

Forex: NFP is the main data event for today but there is also a speech from FOMC Member Lacker and CAD Unemployment and Ivey PMI data. We also have Day 1 of the G20 meetings so watch for any commentary form that. The GBP/NZD daily chart looks interesting though!

E/U: has slipped below the support of the 1.12 level. Note the 30 min chart and the spike following the ECB comments:

EU4 EU30min

E/J daily: the triangle breakdown looks so ‘textbook’ now but it needed the help of the ECB:


A/U 4hr: holding up very well considering the appreciation with the US$:


Cable: still straddling the mid-way point of the recent swing-high move:


Kiwi 4hr: this is back up testing the 61.8% fib region and any failure to hold back above this key level will support the daily chart’s Bear Flag:



U/J 4hr: seems to be consolidating within a triangle IF you ignore last week’s spike:


GBP/JPY: back below 184 but no clear-cut new TC signal here so we may continue to see choppiness around this key S/R level:


Loonie 4hr: one choppy chart!


GBP/AUD 4hr: similar here too:


GBP/NZD daily: between a rock and a hard place. One to keep an eye on for sure!


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