AUD/JPY: a look at this pair post RBA by Mary McNamara

The AUD/JPY has made a move lower following today’s RBA interest rate cut. This pair had recently broken down and out from a 900 pip triangle pattern and is half way through the expected 900 pip follow through move.

The target move here of 900 pips would bring the A/J down to a major monthly trend line and this is the support level I had suggested would be targeted in a ny bearish continuation move. There is still around about 400 pips+ to go but I still expect to see this trend line at least tested.

A/J monthly: showing major triangle support trend line under price. This chart also has a bit of a ‘Double Top’ look to it though as well. The ‘neck line’ of any possible Double Top would be at about the 87 level and the height of the pattern is about 1,500 pips suggesting a similar amount for any follow through move. The 87 ‘neck line’ level is just below the monthly support trend line and any break of this trend line would have me looking at the 87 region for a reaction; either for support or for a break to start a possible 1,500 pip ‘Double Top’ move:

AJmonthly

A/J weekly: 

AJweekly

A/J daily: triangle was 900 pips so the expected breakdown move was 900 pips and it is almost half way there:

AJdaily

A/J 4hr: price dipped on the RBA rate cut:

AJ4

Price is below the 4hr, daily and weekly Cloud but above the daily Cloud:

A/J monthly Cloud:

AJmonthlyCloud

A/J weekly Cloud:

AJweeklyCloud

A/J daily Cloud

AJdailyCloud

A/J 4hr Cloud:

AJ4hrCloud

Summary: I am expecting price to continue lower to test the monthly support trend line. Any break below the support trend line would have me looking at the 87 region to offer next support. A break and hold below 87 may suggest the start of a 1,500 pip ‘Double Top’ move.

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