Below today’s 0.7581 low will find decent bids at the 11 Mar low at 0.7559, which will probably hold until Friday’s NFP. If wrong, a break of this would then hint at a run to the RBA’s stated target of 0.7500, and as before, I think we are eventually heading there and a fair bit lower over time. Below 0.7500 there is not too much to hold the Aud ahead of 0.7414 (Oct 2010 low) beneath which there is a bit of a hole until the very strong support at around 0.7200 where two important Fibo levels are lining up (0.7210: 61.8% of 0.4773/1.1082 and 0.7180:76.4% of 0.6006/1.1082). I suspect that eventually 0.7000 will appear on the horizon (and eventually 0.6000!), but this is going to be some way off yet.
Rallies today should once again be limited to around 0.7640 although we could see a run towards 0.7665 if the Trade data surprises to the upside. I don’t think we head above here today, but if wrong, then 0.7700 and possibly the Fibo resistance at 0.7725 (38.2% of 0.7937/0.7590) would come into view.
Economic data highlights will include:
TD Inflation, Trade Balance.