AUD/USD: bullish targets from here?

The AUD/USD has been enjoying bullish momentum since the end of October when I noted in a post how it had printed a bullish-reversal ‘Inverted Hammer’ candle. It was in that post that I warned about the potential for a new Prime Minister-inspired turnaround for the much maligned Aussie. This current move may have more room to run though and I have checked different time-frame charts so as to identify possible targets along the way.

A/U monthly: The October candle printed a bullish-reversal ‘Inverted Hammer’ and price has been green since then. This candle was printed at a major S/R zone giving it extra gravitas as it was also the location of the:

  • previously broken monthly support trend line,
  • 61.8% fib of the major swing high move from 2000 to 2011 near 0.715 and
  • 78.6% fib of the 2008-2011 swing high move near 0.71.

AUmonthlyCloud

A/U 4hr: the 4hr chart shows how price has been pretty bullish ever since the end of October. The latest swing high move did not come with a clean TC signal but it has broken up through a recent daily-chart based wedge trend line:

AU4

A/U daily: The daily charts shows that the whole-number 0.74 is previous S/R and would be a level that price might next target. Adding Fibonacci levels to the daily chart’s recent swing low move shows the 50% fib near the daily 200 EMA, at around 0.753, and the 61.8% fib also near recent congestion and the 0.77 level. These would be the next three obvious targets in any bullish continuation:

AUdaily

A/U weekly: this chart reveals three further potential zones that price might target in any bullish continuation move:

  1. a weekly chart bear trend line that is also near the monthly 200 EMA (green line).
  2. the 50% fib of the weekly chart’s swing low move is near previous congestion and the whole-number 0.88 level.
  3. the 61.8% fib of this move is also near previous congestion and the whole-number 0.92 level:

AUweekly

A/U monthly: the monthly chart shows that a 61.8% fib retracement of the 2011-2015 swing low move is near 0.95 and is also a region of previous S/R. This also happens to be the region of the top of the monthly Ichimoku Cloud and so would be an obvious longer-term target if price action made it thus far. The whole-number level at 1.00 would be the next obvious stop if price ventured past 0.95:

AUmonthlyCloud

Summary: the AUD/USD has been bullish since the end of October and some technical targets for any continuation move include:

  • 0.74
  • 0.753
  • 0.77
  • 0.88
  • 0.92
  • 0.95
  • 1.00

NB: I am back home this morning and will update TC signals later today. Note how the A/J move has been joined by the S&P500 though!!!

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