AudUsd: Looking very heavy. China data tomorrow, in focus

Having made an early attempt to regain 0.9000 on Friday, the Aud gave up in the face of strong selling interest and headed lower for the rest of the session, seeing virtually no bounce and closing just above the new trend low at 0.8920.There is not too much domestic data due this week so traders will look to the HSBC China Flash Mfg PMI on Tuesday for an early guide and then to a Glen Stevens’ speech on Wednesday before focusing on the US data, which could again push the US$ higher and the Aud lower, should the firmer trend in the data continue. Keep an eye on commodity prices. Iron Ore finished at another 5 year low ($81p.t.), and Gold looks as though it could be about to follows Silver’s lead on Friday (- 4%) and could be in for an early test of $1200oz.

The price action looks terrible, and with stops lining up under 0.8900 we could be in for an early test of 0.8890 (3 March low) and then 0.8860 (76.4% of 0.8660/0.9505). A break of that would see an acceleration to the downside towards 0.8800 and to the 1.618 Fibo extension of the head/shoulder target at 0.8790. This could take a while to come about but the medium/longer term indicators do not look healthy and it is beginning to look as though the Aud may eventually want to retest the January low at 0.8660.

With little data due that is likely to cause any nasty short squeeze, as per the recent domestic jobs data, the upside looks somewhat limited this week. If 0.8920 can hold though, then we may see a run back towards 0.8950 and possibly to the long term trend support-turned resistance at 0.8990. I would be surprised to see it back above here now, but if wrong, look for a squeeze back above 0.9000 towards 0.9100; we will worry about that if we see it, but if, as I suspect, we make a monthly close (next week) below the monthly trend line at 0.8990, then the way opens up to lower levels ahead for the Aud.

Economic data highlights will include:

M: WBC Consumer Survey.

T: HSBC China Flash Mfg PMI

W: CB Leading Indicator, Financial Stability review

T: RBA Annual report

F: China Leading Index.