The AUD/USD is shaping up as one of the more interesting pairs to watch with tonight’s NFP and who’d have thought that after this week’s RBA rate cut? Sure, plenty of eyes will be on the USD/JPY as it hovers above the 100/100.50 threshold but with the Olympics about to start it could be the AUD/USD that might be the pair to try for an Olympic-style run IF it can get over a huge trend line hurdle! The Aussie is certainly one major underdog for any bullish contention, but, just as the Olympics often unveil surprises then NFP might too!
AUD/USD monthly: price action is trading under a 3 1/2 year bear trend line:
AUD/USD weekly: price action is edging up towards this bear trend line and there is the look of a bullish-reversal ‘Inverse H&S’ here too. Any bullish breakout above this trend line would have me looking for an eventual move up to test the 61.8% fib near the 0.95 cents level:
AUD/USD weekly Cloud: It is worth noting how price action is holding above the weekly Ichimoku Cloud for the first time in over three years and note how weekly bullish momentum is on the uptick: #bullish!
AUD/USD daily: any respect of this upper bear trend line with tonight’s NFP would have me looking for an eventual move back down to the first of the support triangle trend lines, followed by punctuation at the various whole and half numbers, and then on down to the second of the support triangle trend lines. Note the lack of daily momentum here at the moment though SO use any uptick as a trading guide:
AUD/USD 4hr: there are the upper and lower trend lines to watch here with NFP as well as the 0.76 S/R level.
US$ weekly: the fate of the AUD/USD might be determined with NFP though and whether the US$ can hold above 95.50 support. A hold here might undermine the AUD/USD but any US$ weakness would help the AUD/USD in its quest for its own Olympic Gold in the form of the 3 1/2 year bear trend line:
Summary: the AUD/USD is drifting up towards a major, 3 1/2 year bear trend line in the lead up to tonight’s NFP. Watch for any make or break of this trend line region to help gauge the next directional move with the AUD/USD.
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