From the FXWW Chatroom – CitiFX Strategy has established a long AUDUSD position ahead of the RBA
meeting: They see value in tactical longs ahead of this week’s rate
decision/events, targeting a further rise in AUD to $0.74 over the course of the
next two to three-weeks.
1. Fed dovishness erodes a source of support for USD and could be associated
with an AUD-positive rise in risk appetite.
2. Easing trade tensions could further support risk appetite.
3. Dovish leave on the RBA presents a high bar for a dovish surprise.
4. Prospects for a shift in RBA guidance are more finely balanced than market
pricing implies and the range of potential dovish surprises is narrow given that
risk for an outright cut is remote.
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