Baml: Conviction – Lower AUDUSD 2/5

From the FXWW Chatroom: It seems as if there has been a material change in AUD over the last week, with the price action now rather worrying for the pair. It seems as if it suffers particularly badly in any case of dollar strength and the overnight moves in $ Asia see this happen once again. Technicals suggest further downside is certainly possible should we close around these levels, though the pair needs to churn through near term support at 0.7610/20 to open up the downside levels listed below. My view is that the market has used the carry story in EM to somewhat lazily follow in AUD and for this the weak hands will ultimately have to fold, particularly if this spirals into a continuation in $EM. A close below 0.7650 will form a bearish daily candlestick and add to the case for further downside.

Resistance: 0.7725, 0.7745/55                                        Support: 0.7610/20, 0.7575, 0.7530, 0.7480

Resistance: 0.7310, 0.7325                                              Support: 0.7205, 0.7145, 0.7090

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