Barclays ECB Preview

No change today but focus on contingencies for more action later  We expect no significant announcement  The ECB governing Council met yesterday and this morning for its regular monthly meeting, and ECB President Draghi will hold the usual press conference this afternoon after the policy announcement at 12:45 London time. We expect no change in policy after the comprehensive package presented in June and detailed in July. The focus will be on the press conference and the assessment of latest economic and financial developments: we expect the ECB to take stock of the ongoing weakness in growth and inflation and reiterate its commitment to implement further easing measures should the situation worsen in the second half of the year.  We still think the bar for outright QE is quite high and the decision to buy EGBs would require renewed recession or outright deflation. It will take until year-end to implement the June measures, and more unconventional measures are unlikely to be envisaged before then.

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