Barclays FX Outlook – FXWW Chatroom

EURUSD: Lack of downside follow through below 1.0815 and broad profit taking on USD longs signals temporary respite from the down-move. 

We prefer to use upticks as an opportunity to sell at better levels. Resistance near 1.1045 is expected to generate selling interest, Our downside targets are towards 1.0675 and then the 1.0460 year-to-date lows. 

USDJPY: Tuesday’s key reversal day has prompted us to turn neutral in the short term and look for better levels to re-buy. Downside risk is seen towards 123.00, possibly 122.00 before a base can form. Overall we are bullish and look for a move towards the 125.85 highs. 

GBPUSD: GBP has remained resilient in the face of a stronger USD. Now that USD bulls are taking a breather, we look for GBPUSD to break above 1.5675 to open our targets near 1.5800 and then the 1.5930 year-to-date highs. 

USDCHF: We are bullish and look for further upside towards targets near 0.9720 and then higher towards the 0.9865 range highs. Support in the 0.9525/45 area provides buying interest on dips. 

EURJPY: We are bearish and would fade upticks against resistance in the 137.80 area. A move below initial targets in the 133.10/30 area would encourage our bearish view towards 131.80. 

EURGBP: Upticks towards 0.7075 are expected to provide better opportunity to sell. While the 0.7255 range highs cap, we are looking for a move lower through 0.6930 towards targets in the 0.6770 area. Beyond there we are looking for a move towards the 0.6535, multi-year range lows. 

EURCHF: We are bullish and look for the range lows near 1.0280 to underpin a move higher towards targets near the 1.0575 highs. 

AUDUSD: We prefer to fade upticks against resistance in the 0.7500/0.7015 area (recent range highs/200-dma). A move below 0.7325 would signal lower towards our targets near 0.7265 and then the 0.7100 area. 

NZDUSD: We are bearish and would look to sell near 0.6705, the 21-dma. Range highs

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