Barclays Trade for the week ahead: Short AUDUSD

While this week’s RBA board meeting minutes (Tuesday) are unlikely to provide much new information, renewed weakness in global commodity prices should weigh on a still-overvalued AUD this week. Recent price declines should highlight Australia’s large exposure to a slowing Chinese economy and the inability of its shrunken manufacturing export sector to compensate without further currency weakness.Our technical strategist is also bearish AUDUSD against resistance near 0.7225 and looks for a move lower toward the 0.6935/0.6895 lows. A breach of the latter would signal further downside toward our greater targets near 0.6250.

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