Barx.. FX Month-End Rebalancing Analysis

From the FXWW Chatroom – Equity markets were down across developed economies as a result of elevated risk aversion, fueled by concerns about a slowdown in China, low commodity prices and corporate misbehavior in the automotive sector. In USD terms, European equities posted the largest decline in market value, while the US bond market outperformed, helped by the delay of the Fed’s first rate hike (Figure 1). In relative terms, however, the US equity market only modestly outperformed EUR, JPY and GBP markets, while it underperformed CAD and AUD. Our model, which works under the assumption that static FX hedge ratios are maintained, shows weak USD buying signals against commodity currencies (CAD and AUD) and remains neutral on G3 (EUR, JPY and GBP), 

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