GDP growth will likely not return to its normal pace until 2009, a top Fed Official said Monday. Though conditions are expected to improve in the second half of 2008, economic activity will still run `at a relatively sluggish pace,` Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said.
`Looking ahead, our outlook at the Chicago Fed is for continued weakness in real GDP over the near term.` Evans said in prepared remarks to be delivered at the Harper College Economic Forum. `We expect real GDP growth will return close to potential as we move through 2009.`
Evans cited continued weakness in the credit markets that will restrict spending as a factor in the continued economic weakness, along with lingering problems in the housing market.
`While we don`t expect any significant contributions to growth from residential construction for some time, the drag from the sector ought to at least diminish as we move through the rest of this year and next,` he said. `Similarly, as financial market participants revalue portfolios and repair their balance sheets, the drag from credit conditions ought to diminish over time.`
Evans also predicted that the fiscal stimulus bill would likely boost spending in 2008.
On the inflation front, Evans noted that the Fed expects improvement over the medium term, projecting core inflation in the range of 1-1/2 to 2 percent by 2010. That forecast is based on predictions that energy and commodity prices will stabilize, although the Chicago Fed president noted that `there are risks to the inflation outlook if this stabilization does not occur.`
`Although the persistently high readings of commodity, food, and energy prices do not appear to have had a major impact on longer-run inflation expectations, we have to be mindful of their potential to do so,` Evans said. `Any increase in inflation expectations would pose an important risk to the achievement of price stability.`
The Chicago Fed president noted that it may take a while for markets to adjust to the series of reductions in the federal funds rate.
`Given the challenging financial circumstances, it seems likely that credit conditions will also require adjustment time, as financial institutions reevaluate their portfolios and capital needs,` Evans said. `As a result, the level of uncertainty regarding future developments continues to be high and the path forward may be uneven.`
Many investors and analysts believe that the April rate cut, which reduced the FOMC`s target for the federal funds rate by an additional 25 basis points to 2 percent, is the last in the series. Evans stated that the Federal Reserve `will continue to respond to future unexpected changes in the environment for growth and inflation as needed in order to promote sustainable growth and price stability.`