BNP have the opposite view to the Nomura one shared earlier:
USD positioning fully unwound – strong sensitivity to Fed speakers
Over the weekend three Fed presidents reiterated their expectation to raise rates this year: Williams (2015 voter), Bullard (2016 voter) and Lacker (2015 voter). Focus will now shift to the other Fed speakers this week, starting with Lockhart (2015 voter) today at 17:00 GMT, leading up to Chair Yellen herself on Thursday. The speakers may stress their expectation that policy tightening will begin by year-end but, with data dependency limiting the extent to which they can commit, market pricing may not respond. However, with USD positioning now flat according to BNP Paribas positioning analysis (see chart) and rates markets once again priced for minimal near-term tightening, we think risk-reward is attractive for staying long USD. We remain long USDCAD and long USDJPY accordingly. The main US data release this week is the August durable goods orders report. We expect core orders to remain subdued, but not weak, which will probably do little to encourage a rebuilding of Fed expectations.