BNP Paribas: Short EUR/NZD

We initiate a short EURNZD recommendation at 1.5920 targeting 1.55 with a stop above 1.6250. Short EUR exposure appears to be one of the clearest FX positions to choose as it remains the funding currency of choice. Ongoing dovish rhetoric from ECB President Draghi as well as other members suggests more policy easing. Short EURNZD is our top pick given that our latest BNP Paribas positioning analysis signals significant short exposure in NZD (which is more extreme than AUD or CAD). Relative fundamentals are also strongly supportive of a move lower in EURNZD. The 2-year swap ratio has fallen sharply this year and been a key indicator for the currency cross.

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