BNP: Positioning for next stage of AUDUSD weakness

From the FXWW Chatroom – Global risk sentiment has been on the rebound and deflation fears are subsiding. However think it would be wrong to expect any sustained strength in commodity currencies. We think investors are overlooking the likely divergence in core inflation and policy rates between the US and commodity exporters in 2016. AUDUSD’s relative resilience amid rising US front-end yields thus represents a selling opportunity in our view. On Wednesday we recommended expressing that view by buying a 3M 0.70 AUDUSD put with a 0.64 KO (for more details see  “Position for next stage of AUD weakness”). A speech by RBA Governor Stevens failed to provide the AUD with direction overnight, but he continues to signal that the option of further policy easing remains open. 

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