BREXIT IS A REAL POSSIBILITY – SO IS A EUROZONE CONTAGION FEAR REAL?

THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU 

INTRODUCTION:

What a boring week in Forex. Well it was for me anyways. I covered several trades that I had held from NFP day and took losses, in particular with the NZD/USD. I decided to take the pain as I was just extending stops (whilst still inside my RISK TOLERANCE levels) but enough was enough and felt it time to do so.

Even with the loss in pips taken so far this month, I am still on target for my year to date target of 10,000 pips. The cushion I had going into this month is now gone. What is more frustrating on top of taking losses is that I have zero confidence in aggressively adding trades given that markets, except for the GBP related trades are really range bound. When the EUR/USD trades almost daily in 40 pip ranges the market stagnates and trading with confidence is not there.

I tweeted to subscribers on several occasions about my frustration, as when I take losses so do they, and, it is hard at times for subscribers to get the fact that I only trade when I am 100% engaged with the market. This market I am struggling to get a feel for.

All I see is that Oil is the “b-all and end-all” when it comes to market direction. Correlations have been off; as you will know, I am a big believer in inter-market correlations.

Basically to sum up the first two weeks in June from my perspective; they have in a nutshell been boring, annoying and frustrating. I do hope some of you have fared a little better.

Please note that because of my touring schedule away from my office base in Quebec, there will be no WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU, on the dates listed below.

18th June 2016
25th June 2016
2nd July 2016

Originally, I had planned to produce something but the schedule is so intense the chance of having the time available is so slight there is really no point promising and not delivering.

 

THE FX MARKET PLACE:

LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:

Last week was a slow week in trading for me, but there were significant events that took place in my opinion.

Is it just me that sees / views the markets as complacent at the moment?

Do the market participants dotted around the globe view everything on the basis that central banks will step in to support the private banks and markets once again and backstop potential losses and confidence should we have another crisis?

What the hell is going on? I find the whole approach anti to market fundamentals and at times technicals mean nothing. It’s all about OIL and news driven events that trump (no pun at the DONALD intended), economic data such as BREXIT. Frankly it is disturbing.

Back on track…

Janet Yellen (FED) spoke last week re-affirmed her desire to tighten and raise interest rates. The markets listened and kind of did nothing.

Glenn Stevens (RBA) kept rates unchanged. The RBA is still concerned over commodity pricing and housing, but sees no reason to play with interest rates yet *(later)

Graeme Wheeler (RBNZ) also kept rates unchanged. He also cited the housing bubble in Auckland and demonstrated the best he could that he is on a very thin dividing line. He spoke twice after the statement was released. I read the statement and frankly I thought all that the RBNZ had done was tippex out the date on the last one, re-date it and issue it again. It was that similar. He basically stated that he was waiting on the FED *(later).
In his second speech he was so HAWKISH and BEARISH towards the NZD I was amazed that the currency remained so well bid in the hours that followed.

Mario Draghi (ECB) delivered a damming view of the economic position inside the EUROZONE. Basically he re-iterated once again that he has gone pretty much as far as he can with fiscal changes and initiatives with the ECB. It is now up to member states to get their fingers extracted from where the sun does NOT shine and implement structural reforms to boost growth and get inflation back in play. I guarantee you; this fell on deaf ears. No one gives a rat’s ass in the EUROZONE to doing the right thing *(later).

Two years ago, had Draghi delivered this speech the EUR/USD would have collapsed by 200-300 pips in the day. We saw about 70 pips and then it pulled back.

Stephen Poloz (BOC) spoke in Ottawa and basically stated there are some concerns ahead for the Canadian economy. He singled out housing. He claimed that the upside housing prices pressure would start to diminish…. my arse it will. Poloz has his head so buried in the sand he has no idea what he is saying as he cannot hear anything. At one point, he was congratulating the U.S. on an economic great job done. In Ireland, this would be considered as tongue in check plaumausing and hilarious to listen to *(later).

Here is later…

    • All of these central bankers are basically saying the same stuff. They are waiting on the Fed to act and raise rates to strengthen the USD and weaken their currencies. The strength of the FED will dwarf anything they attempt and they are prepared to risk a waiting game.

Look… this is all a game, nothing more and nothing less.

Without exception these central bankers cannot see that a lower interest rate policy encourages investors into the housing market as an alternative to buying equities. Now they have bubbles and they behave as 2016 versions of Pontius Pilate, virtually washing their hands of any implications they may have had in the current predicament.

As I have said before it all down to “Dithering” Janet Yellen and when she will act. I do not want to be DOOM and GLOOM all the time but I really fear that complacency has set in and my NIGHTMARE SCENARIO posted in the last two blogs is in place. Nothing that has happened in the last three weeks has caused me to change my views.

Did I miss an end of the world announcement or something?

 

WHAT’S ON MY MIND:

BREXIT IS A REAL POSSIBILITY – SO IS A EUROZONE CONTAGION FEAR REAL?

I have this great app on my iPAD that I can mirror play through my smart TV that gives me hundreds of TV channels from around the world. This includes all the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 TV schedules in the UK, as well as some political UK and EUROZONE based specialty channels, and it is just brilliant.

It has allowed me to watch the TV debates on BREXIT to supplement my reading on the subject, plus I get some snippets from subscribers in the UK as to what is happening on the ground in the local pups etc.

Get ready…

As “wooden” Wolf Blitzer would say on CNN Americas Choice 2016 (The US Presidential Election / Circus coverage), “we have an important announcement”.

In an about turn from my initial perspective, I actually think that the UK could be on its way out of the EUROPEAN UNION.

The arguments to LEAVE in the TV debates are compelling, whilst the arguments to STAY are based on FEAR.

I live in Canada now and watch a great deal of US based TV. For decades, prior to moving, I have commented on the fact that the US population has been managed by fear. Living so close now with even more exposure, I have seen nothing to change those views. FEAR works in the U.S.; look at the DONALD.
The “Brits” are not American. The debates on TV are NOT a slagging match of personal insults; they debate real facts and figures.

The big question for the STAY/REMAIN vote with two weeks left, is that they are hoping that huge undecided voters (the silent majority) will be more conservative in view and will likely vote to REMAIN. No change, the devil you know better than the devil you don’t. But will these people get out and vote? What will the turnout be?

Sovereignty is a huge issue for the UK population. There is absolutely no doubt that unelected bureaucrats in Brussels have eroded this in the name of the EUROPEAN UNION. There was suspicion when the UK entered the EU that this would happen. That was why there was never any discussion on abandoning the GBP in favour of the EUR. Those fears from years ago now have substance, and many believe have been realized. The LEAVES love this point where as the REMAINS gloss over it.

Trade will always happen and frankly whilst there are some benefits to trading inside the EU, the amount of paperwork required to trade from the outside will not be any greater than the waste of paper that exists right now.

For those of you living outside of Europe you will find the way that Brussels manages all things EU is weird and extreme. It is managed, well in fact I do not think it is managed, there are no mandates in place, it has a centralized function on policy but it’s not clear. Policy from the EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT is non-existent. The EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT has no power. The LEAVE side of the debate can just point to high bureaucrat salaries, pensions and benefits, which are unmanaged by elected officials. Basically it is a massive un-checked cost and just wastes money.

It reminds me in many ways of the language police here in Quebec. The policy and procedures are anti- business and just a high cost and a waste.

In Europe hundreds of thousands of €’s were actually spent on the definition and content of a British sausage to see if could be called a sausage!

Yup, we all pay taxes for this critical information.

The LEAVES have an easy sell, as promises of effectiveness of the EU have just NOT materialized and it seen for what it is.

It is a shambolic collection of non-coordinated departments with no effective cost controls. Zero unity or, harmony on most fronts politically and economically, so basically a cost that the UK would be better off without.

To counter-balance all the EU bashing the REMAINS say that the UK will fall behind the world with trade if outside the EU and that tax, unemployment and retail prices will rise. The LEAVES cite Switzerland and Norway who are both geographically close the EURO AREA as having great trading arrangements. Plus, JAPAN, TAIWAN, NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA and the US all trade with the EUROZONE so why would the UK be any different from those? It is a strong argument and FEAR as a counter just does not cut the mustard.

I know that I am keeping this high level without too much flesh on the bones but these are pub discussions. This is where the vote is mainly contested.

I think that there is a real possibility of a BREXIT unless the great undecided are all REMAINS… the silent majority.

Back to my NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…

The BREXIT happens. The GBP is under immediate pressure, but so, in my opinion is the EUR. There is much more at stake for the EUROZONE, right now I cannot believe the apparent complacency.

The EUROZONE is a shambles, reverting back to my earlier point on sovereignty and the single currency, it is important to note that, most voters in the vast majority of EU countries who were members of the EUROZONE at the outset never had a vote on whether they wanted the EUR to replace their sovereign currency. It was an opted in vote on the back of another treaty vote. Vote YES for the treaty and the EUR comes as well. That is what you call democracy EUROZONE style.

If the UK leaves the EU, other countries even those tied to the single currency will be having elections that are really EUROZONE membership referendum votes. I have NO DOUBT that there will be a CONTAGION. I have been writing about this for years in my blogs.

Politicians are far removed from voters, the ECB does not have to interact and the vast majority of the population of the EUROZONE has endured the pain of a failed AUSTERITY plan now replaced by QE (Quantitative Easing), and even this is NOT enough. Mario Draghi is asking for country by country structural reforms. This will take years and years to wash through even if there is commitment today to start to do something.

Listen…

It will be talked about and debated over a glass of wine but bugger all will be done.

The CONTAGION door has been opened by the political failures of those in place in the EUROZONE. It is the best own goal (great timing given EURO 2016) ever to be seen and when the history books are written it will be documented as such.

ITALY, GREECE, SPAIN, PORTUGAL are my naps for CONTAGION.

It is said that if the BREXIT occurs on June 23rd it will take about 2 years to unchain the UK from the EU. Within those two years the EUROZONE will be at break up point in my opinion.

It will take a lot of hard work, commitment, determination and coordination to prevent this. None of these words can be associated with the EUROZONE.

I still see my NIGHTMARE SCENARIO in place.

If the DONALD is elected, we could all be singing the famous R E M song… “The end of the world as we know it”.

 

COMING UP THIS WEEK: 

THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:

(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to www.forexfactory.com and www.tradingeconomics.com for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: N/A.

TUESDAY: USD – Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.

WEDNESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auction prices.
WEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC statement, Projections & FED Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.
WEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.

THURSDAY: CHF – Libor Rate and SNB Press Conference.
THURSDAY: GBP – BOE Interest Rate and MPC voting.

FRIDAY: N/A.
THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW):

(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)

My comments are contained on the charts.

EUR/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 1.1258

EURUSD D 11062016

GBP/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 1.4258

GBPUSD D 11062016

AUD/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 0.7378

AUDUSD D 11062016

NZD/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 0.7060

NZDUSD D 11062016

USD/CAD – Weekly Closing Price: 1.2753

USDCAD D 11062016

USD/CHF – Weekly Closing Price: 0.9641

USDCHF D 11062016

USD/JPY – Weekly Closing Price: 106.74

USDJPY D 11062016

MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:

It’s all about central banks again this week. But on this occasion only the FED. Janet Yellen has a Press Conference this coming Wednesday, the focus will be on will she be looking to July to raise rates (assuming there is no hike this week).

Every dot on the “I” and cross on the “t” will be checked and cross-referenced for clues. Oh, what fun for all on Wednesday. How will the USD react? Personally, I see USD strength if July is still on. Then we have the July NFP release being the next major news event on the U.S. horizon. All other U.S. news may as well be cancelled.

Not that I want to any way be cynical, God forbid. Am II correct in saying though, that the markets reaction and future of the FED monetary policy for the immediate future is going to be based on the U.S. Department of Labour statistics numbers which are never accurate

Will they be massaged to meet the FED’s requirements? Holy Mother of God, there I go again.

Will they be massaged for big business and Wall Street to keep the status quo of free money in place? Wash my mouth out with soap; as if that could possibly happen in the US and A.

As usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Take care,

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/
DATE: 11th June 2016
BLOG VERSION: FOREXTELL VERSION #33

 

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