I was asked my opinion about the CAD/JPY but this isn’t a pair that I chart or watch. I offered to have a look though and this is my humble technical view on this pair at the moment.
CAD/JPY monthly: I’m noticing a few things here and think a point form response is best:
- fibs on the 2007-2009 bear move show price has struggled at the 50% fib level during 2013/14.
- I’m also seeing a monthly support trend line intact.
- strong horizontal resistance is seen at the whole number and psychological 100 level. This is giving the chart a bearish ‘Triple Top’ appearance.
- the combined 100 level resistance and support trend line could favour a thesis for a ‘bullish ascending triangle’.
- any monthly close above 100 would have to be read as bullish and supporting continuation.
- The first major stop for any bullish continuation above 100 would most likely be the 61.8% fib at 103.5 area.
CAD/JPY weekly: Â
- there has been a weekly close above 100 back in 2013 but this did not hold. Hence, a wait for any monthly close might be safer here for any CAD/JPY Bulls.
- I would not expect this 100 level to be given up easily. I’d expect to see choppiness
- around this level following any bullish close and hold above 100.
CAD/JPY daily:
- price is currently negotiating this 100 level resistance zone.
- fibs of the recent bull run show targets for any possible deeper pull back move. The most obvious to me seems to be: the 50% fib near 96.5 / 96 as this is also near the 4hr 200 EMA and the longer tern 50% fib level.
CAD/JPY 4hr:
- this pair has rallied for the last 6 weeks.
- price action seems to be currently consolidating within a ‘Bull Flag’ under the major 100 resistance level.Â
- trend line breaks will hopefully guide traders here about the next short-term move for this pair.
- a bearish break down from this flag pattern might support the pull back move, noted above, down to the 96.5/96 region.
Ichimoku: The CAD/JPY is currently trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly charts which is bullish.
Summary:
- The CAD/JPY is currently consolidating within a 4 hr Bull Flag pattern under major resistance presented by the 100 level. Flag trend line breaks will hopefully guide traders about the shorter term moves with this pair.
- Price action also seems to be forming a monthly chart ‘bullish ascending triangle’. Triangle trend line breaks will hopefully guide traders here about the longer term moves with this pair.
- The 100 level is a strong psychological level and any bullish breakout would probably see price test this key level a number of times before any possible continuation.
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