CAD/JPY: a review by Mary McNamara

I was asked my opinion about the CAD/JPY but this isn’t a pair that I chart or watch. I offered to have a look though and this is my humble technical view on this pair at the moment.

CAD/JPY monthly: I’m noticing a few things here and think a point form response is best:

  • fibs on the 2007-2009 bear move show price has struggled at the 50% fib level during 2013/14.
  • I’m also seeing a monthly support trend line intact.
  • strong horizontal resistance is seen at the whole number and psychological 100 level. This is giving the chart a bearish ‘Triple Top’ appearance.
  • the combined 100 level resistance and support trend line could favour a thesis for a ‘bullish ascending triangle’.
  • any monthly close above 100 would have to be read as bullish and supporting continuation.
  • The first major stop for any bullish continuation above 100 would most likely be the 61.8% fib at 103.5 area.

CJmonthly

CAD/JPY weekly:  

  • there has been a weekly close above 100 back in 2013 but this did not hold. Hence, a wait for any monthly close might be safer here for any CAD/JPY Bulls.
  • I would not expect this 100 level to be given up easily. I’d expect to see choppiness
  • around this level following any bullish close and hold above 100.

CJweekly

CAD/JPY daily:

  • price is currently negotiating this 100 level resistance zone.
  • fibs of the recent bull run show targets for any possible deeper pull back move. The most obvious to me seems to be: the 50% fib near 96.5 / 96 as this is also near the 4hr 200 EMA and the longer tern 50% fib level.

CJdaily

CAD/JPY 4hr:

  • this pair has rallied for the last 6 weeks.
  • price action seems to be currently consolidating within a ‘Bull Flag’ under the major 100 resistance level. 
  • trend line breaks will hopefully guide traders here about the next short-term move for this pair.
  • a bearish break down from this flag pattern might support the pull back move, noted above, down to the 96.5/96 region.

CJ4hr

Ichimoku: The CAD/JPY is currently trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly charts which is bullish.

Summary:

  • The CAD/JPY is currently consolidating within a 4 hr Bull Flag pattern under major resistance presented by the 100 level. Flag trend line breaks will hopefully guide traders about the shorter term moves with this pair.
  • Price action also seems to be forming a monthly chart ‘bullish ascending triangle’. Triangle trend line breaks will hopefully guide traders here about the longer term moves with this pair.
  • The 100 level is a strong psychological level and any bullish breakout would probably see price test this key level a number of times before any possible continuation.

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