CIBC: CAD View

From the FXWW Chatroom: Amidst the current dearth of domestic data, the next key domestic event is the BoC decision and MPR on October 19, the USD CAD cross continues to be largely pinned between oil influences and US rate spreads; albeit we continue to argue that the latter has medium run primacy. Indeed with US implied rate probabilities continuing to firm, watch for the publication of the September FOMC minutes at 14:00ET, expect ongoing interest to buy USD CAD dips. Of course we should expect investors to remain mindful of OPEC related  oil influences. We continue to expect that the 200-Day MAV, currently 1.3200, will provide strong support.  Widening rate spreads in favour of the US, likely helped by robust US consumption data later in the week points towards a test of 1.3312. Topside targets, in line with the high traded on October 7, mark the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of  the year to date range, 1.2461-1.4690.

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