CIBC FX Flows: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom: UsdJpy gained about 10 pips at the Tokyo open from where New York closed and ran into offers near 112.90. It is the first Goto-bi Day of the month, not a huge fixing activity. Very little action without China, South Korea and Hong Kong. Bids are reported near 112.30-35, Tenkan line at 112.37. Offers into 113.00 up to 113.30. On FXO space, some $1.1bn worth of strikes from 112.65-112.80 will expire today New York cut.
Australian trade balance improved in August, gaining Aud989mio. Revision was good as well at Aud808mio from Aud460mio. However, August retail sales was weak at -0.6%, July’s number was revised to -0.2% from flat. AudUsd reacted to the sales numbers, fell from 0.7857 to 0.7832. I heard bids are found near the lows and do take note there is Aud1.1bn of 0.7800 strike expires tomorrow.
AudNzd knocked off from 1.0983 to 1.0954. NzdUsd was left almost unchanged. Earlier, New Zealand Treasury Department said the budget surplus for 2017 jumped to Nzd4.1bn, beating August’s forecast by Nzd363mio. Finance Minister Steve Joyce said the better result is one off and future budgets surpluses may not be wider than expected. Spot NzdUsd got down to 0.7146, bear in mind the 200-Day SMA for NzdUsd comes in at 0.7156, this SMA has held pretty well last 48 hours.
So New Zealand First leader Winston Peters met with the National earlier and last half an hour. Peters will be meeting Labour Party later today.
Euro traded 1.17515-60. Yes, rather quiet and this is norm. Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont has indicated that Catalonia could declare independence next Monday. EurUsd support is seen near 1.1745 while offers atop 1.1790. Events ahead, ECB Praet and Coeure will be speaking later today, also ECB will be publishing Account of its Monetary Policy Meeting. There are several FXO strikes due tomorrow Oct 6 New York cut. Between 1.1735 and 1.1750, some Eur2.75bn notional worth; Eur1.4bn from 1.1800 to 1.1850.
Coughing, prankster and P45 – The Theresa May’s nightmare. The headlines from most newspapers painted rather negative picture for May, calling it a disastrous speech. The Times said UK cabinet ministers warned that up to five MPs could resign over Brexit as they revealed that they are still in the dark over Theresa May’s plans.
Asians
Asian countries closed today – China, South Korea and Hong Kong.
USDCNH fell after the New York close from 6.6778 to 6.6714. I suspect someone was positioning into the change of value date. The pair started to bid back up towards the Tokyo open. Offers met near 6.6520.
UsdSgd higher from New York close, from 1.3615 to 1.3634. Market will be focusing on next week’s MAS semi-annual policy statement. There is no fixed time/day so between Oct 9-13, MAS is likely to broadcast the release of GDP and MPSA tomorrow. In their last MPS, MAS had specified it will keep the neutral SGD NEER policy by an ‘extended period’ of time. There is speculation that the central bank will remove the word “extended”. The recent economic data has been positive but Sept core CPI disappointed.
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