CIBC FX FLOWS : FXWW Chatroom

Our session started off with the New Zealand Feb trade balance, which came in softer than expected at plus Nzd50mio as supposed to expectations of Nzd350mio. Our strategist Bipan noted that in addition to that last month’s $56mio surplus was revised lower to $33mio. Prior to NY close, disappointing announcement from Fonterra, cutting the full-year dividend to 20-30 cents from previous forecast of 25-35 cents. Fonterra also stuck to its 2014-15 milk payout forecast at NZ$4.70 per kilogram. 

NzdUsd came off from 0.7655 but met with buyers on the way down, which I suspect is linked to offers surrounding 1.0300 in AudNzd. The cross eventually broke through to 1.0322 and Kiwi met 0.7625. 

There was a UK bank buying AudUsd into NY close from 0.7874 but suspect he couldn’t get it higher because of AudNzd offers near 1.0300. Aud stayed bid near 0.7870 as the Nzd fell on weak trade data. RBA Financial Stability Review released this morning offered nothing new. Aussie floated around in the high sixties. 

A dull one for UsdJpy and the Nikkei Index as well. I heard there are some corporate demand at 119.40-45, stop sell orders at 119.00 and that exporters/gamma sellers up near 120.00; do note there is a 120.00 option expiry today NY cut, notional about $2bn. 

Saw a corporate buyer of UsdCad after Toronto ended, poor liquidity pushed the Usd above 1.2500. Order board isn’t revealing much and nothing on the data front. Our trader Sam recommends long UsdCad in the 1.24-handle, with stop below 1.23 and target 1.3000. Bipan highlighted BOC Governor Poloz’ speech on Thursday will provide greater clarity into what to expect for the April MPR. 

Japanese names are said to be better buyers of UsdThb for their FY end flow; however, it seems that the outflows are much lighter compared to last year. The Japanese lifted Usd from 32.53 to 32.56. The 200-day SMA at 32.48 but local banks are looking to sell rally, pinpointing level at 32.65. 

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