CIBC FX Flows: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom: There has been talk of concentrated UsdJpy bids at 108.50, price action suggesting bids are also scattered in the mid-108.60’s. Will UsdJpy drift lower into Jackson Hole? Tokyo-centre names strong buyer of UsdJpy from under 109-handle. Nikkei opens up in positive and talk in the street that BOJ will be purchasing good size ETF today. In fact a story in The Nikkei that the BOJ has increased its ETF holdings to Jpy13.4trln, scale of its annual purchases has gradually climbed. UsdJpy rose to 109.29 on Trump’s speech, topside offers 109.30’s and 109.60’s. Small 109.00 option strike maturing in NY today, about $800mio.

EurJpy broke above 129.00 again and we suspect stop loss orders around there were triggered.

Not a number we usually pay attention to but the Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 109.2, this is the lowest since Sept 2015. AudUsd unchanged in the mid-0.7930’s. AudJpy demand after the opening bell and AudUsd challenged mild offers above 0.7945, stronger ones 0.7980-0.8000. There should be some buying towards yesterday’s low 0.7910.

EurUsd has been dominated EurJpy today – not a lot of interest as we move closer to Jackson Hole. Interesting sell orders ahead of 1.1850, believed to be linked to FX option structures. For your info, there is a Eur2.3bn of 1.1850 strike due today NY cut. Bids are in the 1.1780’s.

Emerging Markets:

Interesting comments Philippine Finance Secretary Dominguez on the level of the Peso. He said he is concerned with the rate of FX change but the government is not uncomfortable with it. Philippine Budget Secretary Diokno joined in and said FX rate is manageable, weak Php good for revenue. There you have it, UsdPhp should continue

CNY mid fixed at 6.6597, onshore spot on 6.65-handle and struggled to get higher. On the offshore, our macro strategist Patrick Bennett still look forward to lower USDCNH. The pair has yet to rally and Pat needs to revise that strategy. Like other currency pairs, the Usd hasn’t rallied much, might be missing a fundamental driver. If you recall, one PBOC advisor said Yuan may strengthen to 6.5 by year-end.

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