CIBC: RBA

From the FXWW Chatroom: Mkt disappointed that they did not tag on to the hawkish turn of elsewhere. but outlook is still upbeat for growth, inflation and jobs. and… even with cad gains on boc hawkishness, we suggest that it is the sustainability of the better data that is the more important driver. as in aust, data has been and remains good. there is no inflation threat, thus no need to consider raising rates (yet). boc are at 0.50%, rba is at 1.50% at present
>>> Interesting size of reaction reflections growing hawkish sentiment by market.
16:59:31

CIBC: Central Banks: Who’s Next? – CIBC On Our Radar
Data and Themes to Watch This Week
1.    Central Bank Shift: Riksbank and RBA are up this week
2.    Liquidity: July 4th holiday implies thin markets
3.    CAD Employment: One last data point before the July 12th BoC
Tactical
1.    Short AUD/USD bias to target a move back to 0.7530/50
·         The RBA will turn hawkish this year, but the timing isn’t quite right to do so at Tuesday’s meeting. Markets may come away disappointed this week while the technical setup looks favourable for near-term downside (reversal two-day candle, while daily RSI is moving back into neutral zone).
·         We expect the RBA to turn hawkish in August.
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