Our overall flow has a small bias in favour of selling USD so far today. However, activity remains mixed and it looks like some are happy to play the short-term ranges.
– EURUSD: Turnover below average; small bias in favor of selling
– USDJPY: Turnover good; small bias in favor of selling
– EURJPY: Turnover high; no bias
– GBPUSD: Turnover below average; bias in favor of buying
– EURGBP: Turnover average; clear bias in favor of selling
– AUDUSD: Turnover just below average; bias in favor of selling
– NZDUSD: Turnover below average; bias in favor of buying
– USDCAD: Turnover average; small bias in favor of selling
– USDCHF: Little of note
– EURCHF: Little of note
– USDCNH: Turnover above average; large bias in favor of selling
– USDCNH: Turnover below average; bias in favor of selling
– EURUSD: Turnover below average; small bias in favor of selling
– USDJPY: Turnover good; small bias in favor of selling
– EURJPY: Turnover high; no bias
– GBPUSD: Turnover below average; bias in favor of buying
– EURGBP: Turnover average; clear bias in favor of selling
– AUDUSD: Turnover just below average; bias in favor of selling
– NZDUSD: Turnover below average; bias in favor of buying
– USDCAD: Turnover average; small bias in favor of selling
– USDCHF: Little of note
– EURCHF: Little of note
– USDCNH: Turnover above average; large bias in favor of selling
– USDCNH: Turnover below average; bias in favor of selling
GS: EUR from trading – the pull backs from the lows continue to overshoot with yesterdays 170pip reversal reminding the market that even the most popular core views can feel uncomfortable at times. Ahead of the FOMC expect to find resistance towards 1.0620/30 and then 1.0685/1.07, but after the positioning lightening seen over the past couple of sessions perhaps a less dovish FOMC (out with “patient”, little/no reference to the dollar) will accommodate fresh supply again.
Fast money accounts in particular will have found it difficult to cling onto cash positions – owning low delta downside as an insurance policy for any possible surge in the dollar the favoured option by those not fully invested at this stage. Support comes in towards 1.0550/65 initially after which 1.0455/65 double bottom from Friday/Monday should catch the pair.