Citi: G10 Portfolio Update: Lowering stop on short EURUSD (TOTW)
We initiated a short EURUSD position as our Trade of the Week on Monday at 1.2470. We are now lowering the stop to 1.2425 to protect gains ahead of the US payrolls report. ECB dovishness presages additional EUR depreciation, particularly if investors move to discount greater risk of easing in December. Indeed, EUR should remain acutely vulnerable to the trend higher in USD, with strength in US data flow likely to feed into moves. However, even as we expect trend strength in labor markets to continue, month-to-month changes in payrolls can be volatile so we believe it is prudent to protect gains against a potential short-term adverse reaction to surprising weakness.