Citibank: USD/JPY to range trade between 122 & 125.86

JPY Outlook:
• U.S. May new home sales hit a new cycle high at
546K, the fastest sales pace since February 2008.
The months’ supply edged down to 4.5.
• Data indicate that demand for housing has shaken off
the hit from winter weather and is expanding solidly.
As supply diminishes, we expect higher home prices
and rents and production to continue to expand.
• Investors may put back focus on USD fundamental
and its interest rate outlook. Fed Governor Jerome
Powell said he forecasted rate hikes for Sep and Dec.
Citi analysts anticipate the Fed to hike rate in Sep.
• The recent USD weakness may be finding some
respite, with short term flows suggesting it may be
oversold, which may restrain the JPY.

Technical Analysis:
• 1) Slow Stochastic: turning up; 2) Double Bottom
• USDJPY is approaching an important short term level at 124.45, the neckline to a double bottom pattern.
• Interim resistance would be met at 125.86 from the June 5th high.


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