Classic style ‘Risk On’ appears during the US session. Will it continue?

Risk appetite appeared during the US session with the US$ slipping, thereby helping to boost Oil and other commodities, and with the vote of confidence displayed by Warren Buffett as he went stock shopping. The fall in the US$ has also helped to boost the Kiwi, Cable, Aussie and E/U in classic-style ‘Risk On‘ trading activity. The question is, will this continue?

USDX weekly: I have a lot of patience but it is starting to wear thin here. How long will we have to wait for any Flag breakout? Whilst this pattern is forming a ‘Bull Flag’ any continued US$ weakness could trigger a deeper pull back here. Note how the 61.8% fib of this latest swing high move is back down near a previous trend line breakout and, thus, might be an obvious target for any bearish follow through. Such a move would only help to fuel a continuation of the ‘Risk On’ that appeared last night. No ‘counting chickens before hatching’ stuff going on here BUT just keeping a wary eye on all potential outcomes:


USDX 4hr: weakened during the US session:


EURX weekly: a mirror image of the US$ index.


EURX daily: note the bounce up off major 96 support:


S&P500: this is back above the Cloud with Oil price action helping to lift energy stocks and with the confidence boost from Warren Buffett’s shopping trip:


S&P500 30 min: a great 30 min trend trade possible overnight:


Silver 4hr: this is a lot stronger with the weaker US$ and is back above $15 support:


Silver daily: note the channel breakout:


Gold 4hr: stronger too and back above $1,100. Many will be looking to SHORT with any test of the $1,145 broken support:


Gold daily: the break of $1,145 was significant and, thus, many traders will be looking for a test of this level and then to SHORT. Whilst this makes sense one issue could be that IF the US$ keeps weakening then price could also keep heading back up through this resistance level:


TC Signal: this choppiness doesn’t help my trend signals BUT one has appeared on the GBP/JPY:



E/U: higher but note how it has paused at the 61.8% Fib of the recent swing low. Many traders will be looking to SHORT here:


E/J 4hr: this has given a triangle breakout BUT no new clear-cut TC signal:


A/U 4hr: back above 0.74. Watch for any reaction to today’s AUD NAB Business Confidence data. Tomorrow brings more Chinese data as well:


A/U daily: I still see a test of 0.795 as a possibility here given this US$ weakness and that the 0.795 level is the region of previous S/R, a daily 200 EMA and the 78.6% fib of the recent swing low move as well as another key fib region:


Kiwi 4hr: still ranging in a possible Flag or basing pattern. Trend line breaks should help confirm which:


Kiwi daily: a Bear Flag forming up or a basing pattern? Watch trend line breaks for clues:


Cable 4hr: made a decent recovery in the US session:


Cable 30 min: note the great 30 min trend trade opportunity during the US session:


U/J 4hr: above the 124 but below a trend line:


Loonie 4hr: we have had the pullback to the key 1.30 level. The question now is will this chop around this region to help form up a ‘Handle’ to go with the ‘Cup’?


Loonie monthly: will we see extended choppy action around the key 1.30 level to form a ‘Handle’ or will price simply continue on?


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