Commerzbank – Traders Views from the FXWW Chatroom

EUR/USD slipped through the 1.3336/33 support zone, a daily close below which has triggered further losses to the 1.3295 November 2013 low en route to the 1.3105 September low.

Minor resistance comes in around 1.3333/36 and more important resistance along the three month downtrend line at 1.3437. Only an unexpected daily chart close above the 1.3445 current August high would delay our overall negative outlook for a deeper retracement towards the June low at 1.3503 to take place. While EUR/USD remains below its July peak at 1.3701, our medium term negative bias will remain intact.

Current position: Shorts at 1.3425 were cashed in at 1.3340. Recommended trade: None.

USD/CHF nears the current August high at .9115, a rise above which will have the 200 week moving average at .9157 and then the 55 month moving average at .9349 in its sights. This held the topside in 2012 and 2013 and is expected to do so again, at least for several days. Above here, at .9392, lies the 29 year downtrend. Only unexpected failure at the current August low at .9020 would allow for losses back to the three month uptrend line and the 55 day moving average at .9000/.8993 to occur. While this holds the bull trend remains entrenched.

Current Position: Long .9040. Recommended Trade: Stop at .9020. Exit .9160.

GBP/USD’s swift descent has resumed with it currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.6611. Below it lie the 1.6585 late February low and the 1.6558 April low en route to the 1.6467/54 March low and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Longer term we eventually look for losses back to 1.6000. Minor resistance above the 200 day moving average at 1.6674 can be seen along the two month downtrend line at 1.6748. While capped by it, GBP/USD will remain directly offered.

Current trade: Square. Recommended Trade: None.

USD/JPY is still recovering from its current August low at 101.51 and has overcome the 2014 resistance line at 102.91 as well as the July peak at 103.15. Therefore the April peak at 104.13 is now in focus. Together with the 104.45 78.6% retracement, it is regarded as the last defence for the 105.45 2014 high. Minor support below the breached resistance line at 102.91 and the June high at 102.80 comes in at the 102.27 early July high. Further support is found along the 55 day moving average at 102.01. We will retain our bullish view while USD/JPY remains above the current August low at 101.51.

Current Position: Longs at 102.15 were cashed in at 102.90. Recommended Trade: None.

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