In the medium-term, we see the key condition for sustained support for the
USD/JPY is that US economic confidence recovers promptly and to sufficiently
strengthen the market expectation on multiple interest rate hikes. Without this
condition, we think even further easing by the BoJ would not be effective in
sustaining a weaker yen. Moreover, even if the likelihood of multiple US rate
hikes increases, we think it would probably take several months for the market
to factor this in. We estimate that it will be difficult for the USD/JPY to hold
patiently above 100 until that time. Our end-2016 forecast is 94.
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