ECB over so focus now shifts to next week’s FOMC

The ECB cut interest rates and the EUR$ rallies. So, if the Fed announce a US rate rise next week will the US$ tank? US stocks initially fell following this ECB news and weaker Oil but recovered much into the close where better than expected US data may have helped. The resultant US$ weakness helped to support Gold and Silver but choppy stock action was mirrored on some FX pairs. I suspect this state of confusion may continue until after next week’s FOMC meeting.

USDX weekly: has dipped in response to EUR$ strength:

USDXweekly

EURX weekly: got a boost when Draghi suggested this might be the last of the rate cuts.

EURXweekly

Oil daily: choppy and still struggling at the 50% fib:

OilDaily

S&P500 30 min: a choppy session!

S&P30min

S&P500 daily: a Doji candle seems likely to form here and price is still just under the 2,000 level. Watch to see where this index closes for the week:

S&PdailyCloud

Gold 4hr: choppy but eventually gave a bullish triangle breakout:

Gold4hr

Silver 4hr: a bullish triangle breakout here too and a new TC signal is trying to form:

Silver4hr

TC Signal: I had suggested it might be best to wait until after ECB to see how this develops and that proved wise given the failure of this signal:

AJ4

Forex: data coming up included CAD employment data and CNY Industrial Production. There is a lot of US data next week though including FOMC.

NB: I am at a trading meeting on Saturday so w/e posts will be brief and delayed.

EUR/USD: the EUR$ rallied when it was suggested this might be the end of ECB rate cuts. Price rallied up to the long-term S/R level of 1.12 which is the major 61.8% fib from the monthly chart:

E/U 4hr:

EU4

E/U daily: price is still within a daily triangle:

EUdaily

E/U monthly: the 1.12 level is a popular zone:

EUmonthly

E/J 4hr: back to the key 126 level. Any continuation might target the 61.8% fib but watch to see if the 126 level holds for the weekly close:

EJ4

A/U 4hr: weaker despite the lower US$ but still above 0.74. Another weekly close above this level would be bullish for the longer term:

AU4

GBP/USD: still a bit choppy but seems to be making the most out of the US$ weakness:

G/U 4hr: a bit of a wedge evident:

GU4

G/U daily: the upper trend line has been in force for almost 3 months. For now though, we are still seeing lower highs and lower lows BUT watch for any break of TL to suggest a change to that pattern:

GUdaily

NZD/USD 4hr: holding above a support trend line despite some weak NZD data and the stronger US$. This support TL remains the level to watch in coming sessions though:

Kiwi4

U/J 4hr: still choppy above the 111 level. There is a lot of US data next week including FOMC and this pair may track along like this until then:

UJ4

GBP/JPY 4hr: still drifting here:

GJ4hr

USD/CAD 4hr: a triangle in play here ahead of tonight’s CAD Employment data:

Loonie4hr

GBP/NZD: this rallied after the RBNZ rate cut but is holding below a daily chart bear trend line for now:

G/N 4hr:

GN4hr

G/N daily:

GNdaily

EUR/AUD: EUR$ strength has triggered a trend line breakout here overnight. Note though how any 61.8% fib pullback of this recent swing low move would tie in with the major 1.55 S/R level:

E/A 4hr:

EA4

E/A monthly: you can see from this chart how the 1.55 level is a major S/R zone:

EAmonthly

EUR/GBP weekly: this inverse H&S is still going:

EG4hr

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